What if....He Kexin repeats?

As usual, the things that are on my mind are usually put there by issues debated on message boards. On the intlgym forum, there is currently a thread debating the likelihood of He Kexin going to London. I had also intended to start a new feature called “what if”, a sort of subjunctive gymnastics discussion based in either the past or the future. This seemed like a good place to start.

What if: He Kexin repeats as Olympic bars champion?

Now, I imagine most readers will be like me. Had I read this title elsewhere my initial reaction would have been a dismissive pulling of the face: “surely it would be impossible for He Kexin to manage that, she hasn’t hit a routine in major competition for two years?”.

True, it doesn’t seem like the most likely eventuality, but when considered rationally, it isn’t that ridiculous. Let’s have a look at some handy subheadings...

Inconsistency

The last major competition bars set that He Kexin hit to a good standard was in the Rotterdam team final back in 2010. It looked like this:

OK so 2 years is a long time not to hit a routine. However, to make a comparison, it is that amount of time since Rebecca Bross properly nailed something and she is still a legitimate consideration for her countries Olympic team despite far greater depth. Also, when your last hit international routine received a score that remains to be the highest recorded in the quad, it hardly does bad things to your reputation especially if you compete for a country which does not punish inconsistency to nearly the same degree as other powerhouse gymnastics nations.

Difficulty

In many ways He Kexin remains to be amongst China’s greatest hopes of Olympic gold in London. This again might sound strange when first read, but let’s consider other competitors. Sui Lu, the fantastic current beam world champion and floor silver medallist, has a very reasonable chance as well. However, as history has told us, floor and beam tend to be a lot closer and less easy to predict in most circumstances than the bars, which tends to be very difficulty led and far more specialist as an apparatus (in a similar way to the vault). Her reputation difficulty wise might be a real asset to her: she is the only gymnast to break 16 on the uneven bars at world competition this quad and she has done it on at least 2 occasions. 

As discussed heavily here and elsewhere, the 5 per team rule does not bode well for event specialists from powerhouse countries. However, with little legitimate chance of team gold, the Chinese programme may well be looking to the AA (solely with Yao Jinnan) and EFs more than other countries. 

AT the recent Cottbus cup, she qualified with a reasonably clean routine and scored a 15.225, which is likely to be close to a medal worthy score at the Olympics, and she was using a routine with a D score of 7.1. Here is her qualification routine...

Not her best, but her dead hang looks far less pronounced

Conclusion

Likelihood: Slim. The issues He Kexin faces are threefold:

1. Convincing the Chinese coaches that her bar routine is consistent enough to make her worthy of one of five team spots on the basis of a single routine

2. Hitting in qualifications

3. Hitting in finals

All three would be very difficult, but not impossible. As we have seen over the years, Chinese coaches seem to be more forgiving of errors (but it is important to note that she was pulled from the team finals last year after a disappointing prelims).

Sadly, the main issues with her routine can be boiled down to a single factor: catching her laid out jaeger. Her dead hangs are not nearly as bad as they have been in the past, and her pirouettes and opening Li Ya combination are still impressive. It is clear that the skill must stay to keep the D score in the rafters, otherwise it probably would have been bumped by now in favour or something far more consistent.

What if she managed it? She would be the first Chinese WAG gymnast ever to have two Olympic gold medals, and would add this second Olympic title to the 09 world title to establish herself as one of the modern greats on the apparatus. She would be the first since Khorkina to repeat Olympic gold on the same apparatus.

Personal Opinion: I would be shocked if He Kexin made the Olympic team based on her recent performances, and perhaps would feel like there were shades of unfairness for other possible team members given that she already has had her Olympic experience, not to mention Olympic gold. However, if she made it against all odds and hit cleanly I would be happy to see her medal. 

Although it seems crazy, and is highly unlikely, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. This would be a true Olympic shocker. In many ways, it simply comes down to the successful catching of a Jaeger at the right time.

Pictures: http://static.stuff.co.nz/1233108507/402/591402.jpg, https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0jIbJciOzQHKM3vYRtUKhydfkSricluIFGXC6UL4pDzuya84tY_HPstw3tDP3E1yaXkGZcxMc90inD0GFjsgwHF2sFB7KWMnltbHN_Y5qcA5GTjDBMTuCggi6cCKsujy77NR-lVG6IT9u/s400/925524f62a3f65eaa02343f86218de15-getty-oly-2008-gymnastics-team-final-chn.jpg

The (all a-) round up: how much has the top-billed cast changed in a year?

"And now is the winter of our discontent."

Perhaps when Shakespeare wrote these lines he was inspired by an emotional response to the end of the gymnastics year in terms of major competitions. Probably not, but for those die hard fans among us, the slow march into December can be a bitter pill to swallow. In many ways, the very second the last event final medal is draped across a gymnasts’ shoulders at a World Championships, the same dreary anticlimactic misery descends over you in a manner reminiscent of childhood boxing days: you had a great time, and may even have got everything you wanted, but despite any good feelings you know that you are now the furthest you can be from Christmas day.

Luckily, this isn’t one of those years. It is already impossible to say “2012” without a thousand adverts and exaggerated promotional slogans bursting into your head. Yes, we are about to embark upon an Olympic year. And personally, I have never been more excited. I know more about the sport than I ever have, am much happier with the state of the sport than I was in 2007, and it is in my home country. What more could a guy ask for?

London 2012: anticipated in the media with the same urgency as a coming apocalypse. But its hard not to share in the excitement.

But enough of that. Stretching ahead of us is a barren tundra of time filled with boring Olympics speculation, so the time for hysterical anticipation is not now. Now is the time to look back over a year in gymnastics and appreciate the good moments, note what has changed and ponder upon the validity of our former expectations. Below is an incredibly brief summary of how 2011 panned out for last year’s big WAG names.

2011 IN BRIEF.

http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lb320ternZ1qat3uuo1_500.jpg

We left 2010 in awe of Aliya Mustafina. Whether we hated, loved or couldn’t make our minds up about her, she was without a shadow of a doubt the gymnast to watch coming into the 2011 gymnastics year. She absolutely smashed the 2010 all around, putting up incredibly solid performances on each of the four apparatus (of which she had no real noticeable weakness, somewhat uncommon in modern gymnastics). Aliya was the reigning queen, and Rebecca Bross her vanquished opponent. Fading away slightly following her disappointing bronze medal finish in the 2010 worlds AA, we heard very little form Rebecca following this competition. But her fantastic performance on floor left a lasting memory.

Killed. It.

For me, the first big competition of the new season was the American Cup. Although dogged with judging fiascos, this event is usually a long awaited relief from competition wilderness and we usually get a good look at how the American’s are doing. Rarely do we get a look at the reigning gymnastics top dog slogging it out against her bushy tailed new kid on the block rival: yes, this year’s American cup was all about Wieber vs Mustafina. There is nothing quite like a good old Russian/American rivalry and this competition was no exception. Mustafina showed she was even more formidable than before, with an upgraded bars set that was quite simply incredible (inbar 1/1 - tkatchev - pak - stalder ½: NOW THAT’S a combination). However, Wieber managed to edge her out with better consistency on beam, a nicer vault and less floor mistakes. The two had proven they were a match for one another. Aly continued her quieter but super impressive consistency (on all but bars).

Just great.

By the time Europeans rolled around we were all well and truly ready for Aliya to be European champion. It seemed inevitable. But disaster struck: the vault that execution sticklers the world over had been bemoaning for the best part of a year caused Mustafina to tear her ACL. And just like that, she was gone.  Fan favourite Anna Dementeyva took the AA gold in her teammate’s absence. Europeans provided us with our first good look at world champion uneven bars worker Beth Tweddle, who showed up with an even harder bars routine filled with insane connections (most of which she missed in finals, causing her to win gold by the narrowest of margins against the assault of Tatiana Nabieva, Russia’s famous skill chucker).

Meanwhile in Australia, Aussie superstar Lauren Mitchell was showing some cool new connections on beam, but looking like she was slowing down a bit. Similarly, over in China, the annual nationals showed former world champion Deng Linlin fail to make the beam podium even within her own country (and even with a new super hard combination under her belt). Bars superpower He Kexin was also showing some signs of growing pains, with increasingly laboured work and a worsening pak. Despite this, there were hints of the potential debut of a new double pirouette skill.

By the time of the VISA nationals, people were poised for the long awaited return of Rebecca Bross and her campaign for a third shot at the world AA title. What they got instead was very hard to watch indeed. After an incredibly messy two days of competition (with the notable exception of floor which was good as ever), Bross took a terrible landing on her DTY and dislocated her kneecap. And thus the top two AAers of the previous year were out for the count.

Worlds happened, and we know what happened there. It was a win for the new blood, with the notable exception of Ksenia Afanasyeva, the long time Russian underdog who finally struck gold with a fantastic showing on floor.

So, looking to the huge event that is next year, how are our old timers doing? (and inspired by a recent intlgymnast thread)Whose stock is up and whose is down? In my opinion this goes broadly as follows

UP

Ksenia Afanasyeva - showed she is not only a team player but capable of success in her own right

Tatiana Nabieva - a gymnast who was previously famous mainly for doing high level skills to a very poor standard showed that she could tone it down, clean it up and win a medal

Catalina Ponor - showed that despite missing pretty much a whole quad, she can still pull out some cracking performances and make an event final on her signature apparatus

Alexandra Raisman - She scooped her first individual medal on the floor, and put in her usual super solid appearances in the team final. She would be an even better position, however, had she finally managed to hit bars in the AA. She didn’t.

Sandra Izbasa - A strange one given that she didn’t compete at these worlds, but the poor team performance of the Romanians showed that they need her next year

DOWN

Yoana Dufournet - A medal was hers if she hit. But she didn’t. Seems like she is running out of chances to prove herself

Beth Tweddle - in terms of her floor. I am a huge Beth fan and I have to admit that it was AWFUL at worlds. BUT her bars routine in TFs was the best and most difficult I have ever seen her do, so she is up in that respect

Lauren Mitchell - No EFs from original qualifications. Then a shoe in. Then no medal.

Jiang Yuyuan - no all around for the previous silver medallist. Outshone by the young ones and unlikely she will be up there again

He Kexin - Inconsistency, growing pains and being removed from the team lineup by a country that isn’t hard on headcases all equal a plummeting stock. This might spell the end of the road for this former Olympic champion.

Alicia Sacramone - it pains me to say it, but her injury at worlds had more than just a physical impact. The US proved that they can win without her, and who knows how far she will be set back by this injury in terms of her upgrades (in particular her handspring 2/1 twist).

So in conclusion, has much changed? We have seen plenty of the old cast members fade away in the shadow of many bright young things. But in terms of the All Around, the potential returns of Bross and Mustafina are still a big threat in the AA. The coming year is shaping up to be one of the best of its kind: I can’t wait. 

The (potential) return of Nastia Liukin.

So here we are then. In the middle of the qualification days at this year’s much anticipated world championships, Olympic all around champion Nastia Liukin ended years of PR, speculation and will-she-won’t-she  forum chat by announcing, finally, that she is training with the aim of the London 2012 Olympics.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IbUQyZiH-M&feature=feedu

Screengrab from above link

The sentiment is great. I love Nastia Liukin, and I thought that her win in Beijing was more than just a win for her. I thought it was a win for artistry and beautiful gymnastics. A win for the elegance and grace of the sport in the face of a new code that threatened to crown botched amanars, chucked leaps and bent knees as winners. Her gymnastics was as light as a well baked cake. The British commentators bowled over by the precision of her blind landings. All in all, it was the performance of her life (minus the ever disappointing double front half from the bars, but I guess everyone has a chink in their armour somewhere).

So, she took the AA. Good.

But then came the bars final, which was (for me) one of the most disappointing moments in recent gymnastics history. Due to my Beth Tweddle obsession? A little. But mainly because there is no question in my mind that the gold should have been Nastia’s. I accept the issue with tie breaking at the Olympics, and do agree that there should be separation somewhere. I accept the issues of shared D scores. I accept that Nastia’s routine was not perfect. But what i refuse to accept is the idea that a code which places He Kexin’s routine above Nastia’s in is any way, well, acceptable. It just isn’t. (I will take this moment to point out that this is simply one person’s opinion and wish to cause no offence to He kexin fans, nor do I mean to cast a shadow over what is clearly a great amount of talent).

So, Nastia showed up with a stunning routine, performed it near perfectly, and went home with a 1^st place silver. Scandalous.

I revisit these memories so as to wonder aloud: is it the bars final Nastia is returning for? A second stab at UB gold? A second chance to face He Kexin and win? Whatever the motivation, I can’t pretend to not be giddily excited to see how it plays out. I just pray that she is a) being truthful, and b)capable of getting back into good enough shape (although it’s clear she has been working out – she hasn’t looked as good as in this video for years).

One thing I do not enjoy, though, is the drawn out nature of the whole thing. The celebrity of it all. Nastia (or as is more likely, her publicity team) have been dangling the prospect of a return in front of fans for a long time, which I think is quite unfair, potentially dishonest, but most of all disrespectful to others forging their own career comebacks. Whilst Nastia constructed Barbie smiles at events and responded to comeback questions with retorts which were essentially “I am not sure yet if I can be bothered”, Alicia, Shawn and Chellsie were sweating it out in the gym making it happen. I didn’t appreciate the tone of these statements: the idea that a second Olympics was there for the taking should she choose to get up and grab it. It made the whole thing sound too easy: as if it was always going to happen.

And this attitude seems to continue. Nastia chose to make this revelation in the midst of the US team’s current struggles. With the loss of Alicia to the dreaded Achilles injury to add to what must have already been a fraught, nervous and inexperienced team, Nastia still stole some of the limelight with her “I’ve been popping into the gym” revelation. Might have been nice to let a few others bask in the limelight for a change. (Then again it is a bit rich of me to complain given that here I am, drafting a response piece. Nastia's PR machine clearly works, despite how Nasty it may seem).

Having said that, though, I am genuinely excited about the prospect of her return (even if it is just as a bars specialist). To see that 1.5 pirouette to Geinger layout a few more times would be brilliant (but a new dismount please). I guess time will tell.