An Absolute Classic

Why the US Classic will give us more clues about the US Olympic lineup than we have had all year

For over a year now, everyone (especially me) has been talking, pondering, speculating and arguing over who is going to make the USA 2012 Olympic team. A lot of ideas and opinions have been thrown around, and it has become very popular to say that the USA is the deepest country in the world.

However, we haven’t had any concrete evidence to get a clear answer as to who will be going and why. Sure, we have seen the odd competition such as the American Cup (the first annual Gabby Douglas appreciation event) and the Pacific Rim championships. But none will rival what we will find out next week at the “Secret” US Classic. As soon as the first day of senior competition comes to an end, we will be closer than ever to knowing who is going to London, and who isn’t.

WHY?

One word. BARS.

There is a hole in the USA’s repertoire, and there has been for some time. The uneven bars have never, really, been their strength. Even when there have been fantastic individuals, the team as a whole seemed to shine elsewhere (except perhaps in 2004). For this entire quad, the US has lacked superstar bar workers, leading many to believe that this apparatus could prove to be their Achilles heel come London.

However, the situation is not nearly as bad as many of us predicted, and the US does have the prospect of three bar routines with start values in the mid-6 to 7 range. However, with Mustafina, Komova and Grishina posting mammoth bars scores at Euros (even without their antipicated upgrades), Russia need only get an Amanar or two and the US vault advantage gap is closed.

The Classic will reveal some very important information about all of the USA’s bar hopes...

NASTIA LIUKIN

Without a doubt the most highly anticipated performer in next week’s competition. The last any of us saw of Nastia, bar some admittedly beautiful training pictures from earlier this year, was her watered down beam set from the 2009 nationals.

Nastia’s bar work is pretty legendary and has the potential to be the highest scoring of any American. However, Nastia has certainly been given the speculative advantage from the “benefit of the doubt” - no one knows anything about what she is capable of, so people instead subconsciously defer to her past successes. Rumours from her gym and statements from Nastia herself have painted a slightly less optimistic picture of what Nastia can bring on the bars. Training news has been very positive with regards to the beam, but little has been said about bars except that getting a routine back together has been a rough road.

In a live Twitter chat with Nastia, courtesy of @ATTTeamUSA, one twitter user asked Nastia: “will you compete bars next week?”. The reply wasn’t exactly crystal clear: “not sure yet, definitely beam”. Whilst I am excited to see Nastia back on the beam, one thing is for sure: beam does not get her to London, bars most definitely does. It would be a shame for her not to go up on the bars next week at least just for some experience of performing in front of a crowd on the event again. Even if she made mistakes, it would still benefit her to get her skills out there again.

What will we know? If she does bars and beam, we will have our first clear idea of whether she has a shot or not. If she hits and has decent start values, even if they are not bigger than Bross’s she might have a better chance because she is probably healthier. If she DOESN’T do bars, we will know that she isn’t ready with less than 100 days to go and her stock will go down.

REBECCA BROSS

It has certainly not been an easy Olympic road for Bross, who is still recovering from a multitude of injuries, not just her high profile knee accident last year. Bross announced a few days ago that her focus has narrowed and will now be on the bars and the beam. Now, if Becca can put together a top notch bar set AND prove that she can hit it, this shouldn’t hurt her too much. However, it does mean that she is now in direct competition with her gym-mate Liukin, and we can be absolutely sure that a five member team will not contain two beam and bars specialists.

Bross’s bar work has been around for a long time, has been scored at two different world championships and she medalled at both. With her beam, had she not fallen in 2009 and performed in the final as she did in the AA she would have been rewarded with a gold medal, and actually did win a silver in 2010. Therefore Bross has a proven track record of excellence on her two apparatus of focus. However, so does Nastia albeit a bit longer ago.

The problem is not what Bross is lacking on bars and beam, it is the niche she misses by not competing floor. If Bross was able to compete TF quality routines on three of four apparatus, I think she would be pretty hard to leave at home. Although bars is where a USA girl can really stamp her ticket, Bross ties Iordache for the highest floor score in major competition this quad, and this would have been an invaluable asset when staking her claim for the games.

What will we know? Whether the cutting down of events was tactical or due to declining health and being unable to cope. If Bross can put up a good bars score and convincingly land her Patterson dismount then she will still be in the running.

GABRIELLE DOUGLAS

An in-shape Dougie could potentially be used on any of the four events, and hence Gabby’s chances for London look a lot more concrete than either of the above. Gabby’s problem has always been consistency, and although the fan perceptions of her as a headcase are a little overblown in my opinion, the last thing Marta will want is a repeat Alicia situation. ESPECIALLY on bars: some speculative team configurations mean putting Jordyn up for TF bars. This would be fine if a top bar worker hits afterwards, but if Gabby was relied upon for the highest bars score and missed the USA would be in pretty deep trouble.

Therefore, all Gabby really needs to do is prove that she can hit a top shelf bar routine with no problems. She already has the skills, and her routine looks pretty handsome. She just has to put it together when it counts. Same goes for all events really. Gabby has the tricks but her routines can look fantastic one minute and a complete car crash the next.

What will we know? We already know Gabby is more than capable. If she hits bars out of the park then her case is stronger than ever.

ANNA LI

Many people might wonder why she is in this list: she hasn’t exactly been at the top of the list in terms of realistic Olympic team expectations. However, why not? If Li can put something truly fantastic together on bars I would say she has a realistic shot. Obviously for Anna to factor in would require a hell of a lot more than from the others: nothing less than a mammoth routine would do. It would take a routine which could realistically score in the high fifteens, but if she managed this then she would not be out of the picture just yet.

What will we know? If USA’s only one event hopeful has anything like a shred of a chance for London.

Elsewhere...

Although bars are the publicized weakness of the US, they aren’t exactly turning away floor workers at the door either. Everyone will be watching to see who can put in a performance worthy of high scores.

Of particular importance here will be competitors like Mckayla Maroney. Maroney, as a world champion, has a great shot of making the team. Yes, vault is saturated BUT Maroney can happily outscore other US Amanars by around four tenths on a good day, which isn’t dissimilar to the advantage of another bar workers bar score over Wieber’s. If she can make a convincing claim for a TF floor spot though, her campaign is only strengthened.

Wieber is a lock for the team barring some terrible injury, but I can’t imagine her not being in London. On the topic of floor, recent videos of US camp verification (that I saw in a cool post on http://gymqueenzlive.blogspot.com.au/) show that Jordyn is working a great double layout on floor.

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh4WOK5G9Zo&feature=g-u-u

London ain’t everything...

It’s important to remember that the Olympics are not the be all and end all. I am excited also to see Casey Jo Magee, a gymnast with entirely different aspirations whose beam is always interesting to watch. Also, I left out Chellsie Memmel in the above analysis, because who can say where she will be up to. No matter what happens though I enjoy watching her compete whatever the weather. 

Secret Classic competitors: 

Capped from http://usagym.org/pages/women/events/2012/secretusclassic/

SO Exciting! 

Pictures: https://usagym.org/pages/women/events/2012/secretusclassic/images/logo.jpg, http://www.unitedathletic.com/images/UAI%20CLUB%20BARS%20WITH%20MATS.jpg, http://imgsrv.wina.com/image/WiresGraphic/2012-05-15T024512Z_1_CBRE84E07NI00_RTROPTP_2_SPORTS-US-OLY-GYMN-GAWIAA-LIUKIN-CAMP.JPG, http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Rebecca+Bross+USOC+Athlete+Portraits+Wf2EG4l9mlsl.jpg, http://gymnasticscoaching.com/new/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Magee.jpg