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What an epic day. Lets take stock, shall we?

Top 10 AA qualifiers:

1. Viktoria Komova
2. Alexandra Raisman
3. Gabrielle Douglas
4. Aliya Mustafina
5. Deng Linlin
6. Vanessa Ferrari
7. Asuka Teramoto
8. Larisa Iordache
9. Huang Quishang
10. Sandra Izbasa

WHAT a qualifier, and what upset about Wieber. But enough of that. Huge congratulations to Raisman for pulling off the meet of her life. Here we find ourselves in a similar situation to one year ago. Komova performed well, not stunningly, but well in the qualifier. The difference this year is the all important Amanar, which is looking good. The question now is whether she can improve on this in the finals, which I think she will need to in order to hold off the Americans.

This competition will be whisker close and could potentially be won or lost on stuck landings and tiny wobbles. The decider will most likely be beam: the area in which both Komova and Douglas are most likely to falter. Iordache has been tipped to be amongst the challengers but her foot injury will probably keep her out of the top spot, which to my mind will be a battle between the aforementioned American and Russian.

Interesting to note the 5^th place QF position of Deng Linlin, and the lack of teammate Yao Yinnan, who did not look anywhere near her top form today.

Want to win: Close, but I am going to go with Douglas.

Prediction to win: Closer, but my money is on Komova by a whisker.

Other medallist hopes: Would love a medal for Mustafina. For Komova and Douglas, I want the win to be by a fraction and not a fall so by this logic it would be bronze for Musty. Having said that I would love for Raisman to medal, just because it would be so unexpected. Elsewhere I really want Whelan in the top ten again.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Mckayla Maroney
2. Sandra Izbasa
3. Maria Paseka
4. Oksana Chusovitina
5. Yamilet Pena
6. Janine Berger
7. Brittany Rogers
8. Elsabeth Black

All the big names present and correct, but this final may not be as academic as people once thought. Maroney is the clear leader after QF with 15.800, but Izbasa scored a tidy 15.316 WITHOUT her Amanar OR her Cheng. If she hits that on the day she will beat Maroney in terms of D score and if this is the case, Maroney will have to make it on her execution alone.

This is definitely possible for her, and in my mind she is still the rightful winner. I would love for Isbasa to take silver and believe that she will. Bronze seems to be the medal to fight for in any case, and presumably Pena and Chuso will be fighting it out for this one.

Want to win: Maroney

Prediction to win: Maroney

Other medallist wishes: Izbasa silver and Chuso bronze.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Beth Tweddle
2. Kexin He
3. Viktoria Komova
4. Yinnan Yao
5. Aliya Mustafina
6. Gabrielle Douglas
7. Elisabeth Seitz
8. Koko Tsurumi

Now obviously I am thrilled with this. GO BETH. Bars routine of her career I would say. It was fantastic to see her put everything together under pressure, and that dismount was stunning.

Any hint of being unbiased and neutral truly shelved for a minute, I undoubtedly want Tweddle to take this. I think she wholeheartedly deserves it. However, it will not be easy for her. Any of Komova, Mustafina or Kexin could take this away. Kexin performed a 7.1 difficulty and she can potentially up it (although I doubt that she would given her consistency issues with the harder version). Regardless of this, she hit her routine royally and proved to everyone that she is not quite done yet.

Komova was beautiful as usual and outscored Mustafina. Both have brand new elements/combinations. Mustafina’s inbar 1/1 – pak – stalder – khorkina variation is super impressive.

Want to win: Tweddle

Predict to win: Tweddle (by a whisker, IF she puts it together)

Other medallist wishes: either two Russians, or Mustafina and Douglas (or a Russian and He Kexin). Very undecided on this one.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Lu Sui
2. Victoria Komova
3. Gabrielle Douglas
4. Linlin Deng
5. Alexandra Raisman
6. Ksenia Afanaseva
7. Catalina Ponor
8. Diane Bulimar

Beam was an interesting one today. No surprises about Sui, her routine was great and I think she is the logical winner. However, her performance at the test event proved that she can royally mess up as well as totally smash it cold. Still, she is the deserving winner in my eyes.

Glad to see Komova so high up despite all her consistency issues on this event. Having said that i do think 15.233 was a bit of a gift considering the two big breaks she had in there. But in fairness Ponor had a pretty big dip and she still qualified, so I guess it balances. On the topic of Ponor, I desperately want her to medal here. There should be some sort of lifetime achievement award for contributions to beam flight series. She would get my vote.

How strange it is to see “headcase” Gabby Douglas qualifying third whilst “rock” Wieber fails to qualify at all. Seems like years of fake connections came back at once to bite Wieber squarely in the ass. My opinions on this are mixed: she never really connected that full twist to anything but still got world level credit, so shouldn’t they at least be consistent with that marking style?

Want to win: Lu Sui

Prediction to win: Lu Sui

Other medallist wishes: Any colour for Ponor, and an American.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Alexandra Raisman
2. Sandra Izbasa
3. Vanessa Ferrari
4. Ksenia Afanaseva
5. Lauren Mitchell
6. Jordyn Wieber
7. Catalina Ponor
8. Aliya Mustafina

As expected, this is an EPIC floor final! Best Olympic final I can remember, in my humble opinion. After all, how often is it that we get to see the Gold medallists from the last two Olympics competing side by side for the podium?

My only complaints are the lack of Chinese representation, Beth Tweddle’s an eighth place alternate spot and Iordache missing her rightful smashed routine. Still, the quality of the field makes up for this.

Calling this one is difficult: there isn’t a single gymnast in this lineup who I wouldn’t want to see winning a medal. I am less offended that some by Aly Raisman’s floor. Yes it isn’t very artistic, but there has to be room for the powerhouse tumblers and she is certainly not lacking in that department. I would say, though, that I would prefer a more graceful routine to take the gold. For me, Izbasa’s routine is the best and I would love her to take the Gold. But I also want a medal for Mitchell, Afan, Ponor and Ferrari, and obviously that is impossible. There is a definite argument for Wieber as well. Given that this is her only EF in an Olympics she was expected to own, and given that she has one of the most memorable routines this quad, a medal for her wouldn’t go amiss either.

Want to win: Izbasa

Predict to win: Raisman

Other medallist wishes: Literally all of them. 

Do you agree? Disagree? Tell me! I really want to know what fans are thinking and what fans want to see happen in the coming weeks. 


Pictures: http://decanter.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/11150%7C0000026ca%7C872e_olympic-logo.png, http://img.poptower.com/pic-96861/viktoria-komova.jpg?d=1024, http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7wuu9WC9c1qha4b4o1_1280.jpg, http://sports.inquirer.net/files/2012/07/Beth-Tweddle1.jpg, http://www.intlgymnast.com/image/sui_lu.jpg, http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/c0.0.403.403/p403x403/315409_10150823266697168_1834494497_n.jpg

WAG Qualifications - The wait is over

An Apology

New job = new stress = I have been absent in the lead up to the games. Thanks for still checking the blog and sorry that there has been such a long hiatus, but I am going to try my best to cover as much of the WAG as I can.

Here is a quick summary of The E Panel’s highlights from this morning’s action.

First off, what’s with all the pink? The USA are going to be a bit too matchy-matchy if they pull out their trademark hotpink hotmess leotards. The stadium looks like it is sponsored by Britney Spears Fantasy. Can’t say I am a huge fan.

The North Greenwich Arena, looking more like the video set for "Katy Perry - California Girls" than a setting for Olympic History

Subdivision 1

Dos Santos, BRA – Floor

First off, I want to know what this girl has been drinking. 29 years old?! It looks like the last four years didn’t even happen. She is still just as bouncy and just as fun to watch. Great full twisting DLO and LOVE the two whips into double tuck. Nice job

Boczogo, HUN – vault and floor

I love watching this gymnast. Her form and physique are wonderful. Sadly she doesn’t quite put it together. Particularly on vault. In the air that 1.5TY looks gorgeous but she just crumbles into the ground on the landing. Shame, but great to see such great, classic presentation from underdog countries. The same goes for.....

Millousi, GRE – Floor

You can’t not watch Millousi when she is performing. Her stature and head to toe presentation is so eye catching. Yes, the tumbling has to be considered weak by today’s standards, but I love qualifications for this because it is like a window into the past. It is so good to see tumbles that a gymnast can comfortably compete and that look marvellous execution wise. Further, her dance and musical interpretation is very, very nice. Sad that this is probably the last we will see of her in these games.

Porras, GUAT – Beam

I hadn’t even heard of this girl and wasn’t expecting wonders, then she shut me right up with a planted BHS into tuck full. Wonderful. The leaps on her splits were fantastic, as was the whole set. 2.5 twist dismount was great in the air, and the messy landing was really the only thing wrong with the routine. Would be fantastic to see her in the beam final.

Pena, DOM – Vault

Probably the one to watch in this whole subdivision, and all eyes were definitely on Pena for one reason: the double front that has been splitting opinion for nearly a year now. Nothing sums up the difficulty/execution row more than a vault than can be sat down and still be pushing a fifteen score wise. Unfortunately, she DID sit down the vault. BUT, I don’t know if it is just me but I think it looks better in the air than it has done previously. 

As pointed out by Christine Still, the problem seems to be that she absolutely sprints down the runway and throws the vault long rather than high. The distance she gets from the horse is unbelievable but she just doesn’t get the air to rotate it comfortably. 14.933. 

Come the second vault, things improve. This is the first I have seen of Pena’s DTY and I thought it was fantastic. Execution wise the best vault she has ever produced and mechanically far more impressive than her 1.5TY ever was. This should sail her straight to the vault final, which will surely be an interesting event: if she puts the double front to her feet she will certainly medal. Even if she doesn’t, with a bit of help she might get a bronze which would be a bronze with a fall in two consecutive Olympics. I wonder what the fans would think of that?

Highlight – Pena’s DTY

Low Point – Hypolito’s makeup. I mean seriously, what was that?

Subdivision 2

Pihan, POL – floor

I LOVED this routine. The opening tumble was so unusual and so well performed: punch front layout full walkout through to 2.5 twist rebound stag. Presentation was fantastic and her leaps are just wonderful. Her legs seem to go on forever and she hits splits like it is the easiest thing in the world. Shame that making finals never reflects the finer touches, because this was a great routine. Don’t know what was going on with the glittery hair, though.

Ferrari, ITA – floor

I was mesmerised. Her tumbling is beautiful AND superbly difficult and I would argue that her double double might just be the best in the world right now. She absolutely planted it today. Her second pass, full in connected to punch tuck-back, could do with being sped up a bit but it is great to look at. Dance good. 14.900. Hopefully that will sail her into the floor final which, based on the field, might just be the best Olympic floor final of all time.

Mitchell, AUS – beam and floor

Lauren is worrying me. Apparently she is suffering with a stomach complaint and I was terrified this might affect her. I want her in beam and floor finals, desperately. Not seeing her in any finals in Beijing was a real disappointment and I do NOT want a repeat of that.

Whether or not it did affect her is debatable. Some of her elements looked better than ever, but in other areas things that are usually right on the money were well off.

Floor came first. First tumble was fine but her legs were way more cowboyed than usual on the double Arabian. Still, she landed fine and jumped out well. Her full in double pike landed messily and there was no connected leap. The rest looked good though, and I have really grown to like the composition of this routine. Although I used to bemoan her leaping out, on balance (now that every gymnast and her dog is doing it) she is quite good at it. 14.833, should be final worthy where she can step it up a bit.

Beam started well. She has managed to stop that horrible slouch before the layout series, and it looked as high and flighted as it ever has. However, she had a massive break on her FWO and missed the connection into the tuck. Further, her double pike was a complete knee eater to get her a 14.300. Only time will tell if this is good enough or not, I am keeping everything crossed.

Low Point – Mitchell wobbling and being a millimetre from falling. My heart stopped.

High Point – Ferrari on floor. She smashed it out of the park and can hopefully repeat that in the final

Can't wait for 3 and 4. COME ON BETH. 

Pictures: http://www.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/49/74/49746eee67d175376df130a08e0c8915.jpg, http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7252/7566779410_fcf6f4fa40_z.jpg, http://c2971522.r22.cf0.rackcdn.com/MbN34rVIrYT18BWmWFKh.jpg, http://www.timeslive.co.za/Feeds/Reuters_Images/2012/07/26/26-07-2012-14-07-00-798mdf55005.jpg/ALTERNATES/crop_630x400/26-07-2012-14-07-00-798mdf55005.jpg

US Nationals Day 1: a super-quick summary

VISA Championships: Day 1 in 100 words

Nastia misses bars. Lack of endurance and nerves bring her to grief: doesn’t compete dismount. 13.150. Comes back to smash beam, 15.100.

Jordyn ties Gabby for first. Messy beam and scary-ish vault but her best bars! Gabby: great bars and good floor, not too bad beam and vault.

Raisman: another day at the office. Solid, but overscored on floor (definitely the opinion splitter of the meet).

Maroney: Two wonderful vaults. Good floor, great 3.5 twist but struggles on 1.5 to double tuck.

Bross: OK bars but sat down Patterson.

Ross: Good

Finnegan: Great, Top Beamer. Stumble on floor, but pretty.

Quick Thoughts

Specialists

I am not Marta, but if I was I would be expecting my specialist hopefuls to be in the top ranks. Rebecca Bross is being beaten by two AA workers, Anna Li isn’t cracking top 3 and Nastia Liukin finished last. Bridget Sloan looked thrilled after her bars routine, which was really rather good.

Can’t fault Nastia Liukin here, she was awesome. Looked like she had glue on her feet and moved quicker than she has in a long time. Will it get her to London? No, but it improves her case after bars. Alicia Sacramone took second place against the odds, looking very competent with a lovely new sheep jump I would never have assumed would suit her body type. Rebecca Bross is starting to make her dismount look like it is supposed to be sat down. With so little time, what chance now?

Mckayla Maroney simply smashed it. Olympic champion performance, as always. Alicia Sacramone didn’t have the best rudi of her life, but it was better than expected. Vaulted an FTY for her second, which her coach didn’t seem happy with.

All Arounders

Gabrielle Douglas is proving that she can be up there with “lock” Wieber yet again. Great bars; beam and vault could have been better but no major mistakes. Floor generally good but as everyone seems to be saying, her music is brittle and somewhat annoying and the dance echoes this. I am all for modern floor music; ever since her tweet after the 2011 team final (“who run the world, US girls!” or something similar) I have always though how great she would be to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVo5tIuPiU8

Jordyn Wieber didn’t have the best day of her life, but it certainly was bad either. Rather it was unexpected. Her worst of the day was probably beam, which is unusual, and she hit bars about as well as she is capable. Floor looked great, no DLO yet though.

Sarah Finnegan: Great floor as usual, and top beam. The mount sequence into the triple spin is wonderful. Who knows whether she will make the team, but her beam and floor are certainly Olympic worthy.

Alexandra Raisman had her usual solid day for third. As usual, there were complaints though. Her vault is dramatically lacking in execution, even though it is traditionally where she held her form the best in my opinion. I read an opinion the other day on a gym board which sums it up wonderfully: it is as though she does a DTY with a tucked half twist right before landing. Floor wise, her tumbling is fantastic. However as a whole I would be shocked if Raisman attracts the same level of scoring from an international panel.

Kyla Ross did what was asked, and crucially she posted the top score on bars.

Tomorrow

Nastia needs to hit bars out of the park.

Bross needs to stand up a Patterson, if not I think it’s pretty much game over

Jordyn could do with hitting beam like she usually does, same with vault. Whichever of Douglas and Wieber manages to do this that will decide who the 2012 National Champion is. 

As always, huge gratitude to Nastiafan101 (or whatever the current variation is) for fantastic videos so quickly.

Picture: http://fulltwist.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012-visa-champs.jpg

Farewell Chellsie?

Rules are rules, but it seems few of us are ready to bid farewell to Chellsie Memmel quite yet...

It is never good when an unbelievable journey isn’t graced with an unbelievable ending. We learned that with LOST, we saw it again with Desperate Housewives, and this weekend in Chicago the rollercoaster that is Chellsie Memmel was stopped without one last trip around the tracks.

I would be shocked if anyone reading this didn’t already know the circumstances, but for clarity...

In the excitement of watching small scale US domestic competitions like the Classic to see how people are progressing and keep our beady eyes peeled for upgrades, we can often forget that they have a specific purpose. The US Classic is a qualifier to the VISA National Championships later in the sporting year.

Now, Chellsie Memmel, although she is a superstar in the fans eyes, has not competed internationally since the Beijing Olympics. Therefore she needed to use this competition not only as a practice (like it was for Wieber, Douglas, Raisman etc due to being on last year’s world team) but she needed to fulfil certain requirements in order to qualify.

For event specialists, this basement level requirement is a score of 14.000 on the apparatus of choice. As Chellsie opted to compete only on beam, this is the score she would have needed in order to advance to Nationals. As we all know, this did not come to pass. Falls on two major skills cost Chellsie dearly, and she posted the lowest beam score of the competition.

Not the easiest watch. Shame about the Arabian - Korbut connection, I like the idea

As a result, Chellsie’s petition to Nationals has been denied (similarly to the Dominique Moceanu situation in 2006, and therefore feelings of sympathy might explain Moceanu’s heated tweeting on the topic) and she becomes the first top name gymnast to be officially out of the Olympic selection process. As of this weekend, Chellsie’s gymnastics career is over.

It just doesn’t feel right: like a giant blazing fire being blown out by a breeze. There is an overwhelming sense that the Memmel saga deserves more of a bang than this damp fizzling out.

WHY I AGREE WITH THE DECISION

Rules are rules

 It cannot be denied that a big part of the reason the online fans are so up in arms about this decision is due to Chellsie’s popularity. People see her as a fighter, a likeable character who has always seemed to be a determined, charismatic athlete; and more importantly,  a team player.

Memmel deserves this appreciation. No doubt about that, and it pretty much sums up the way I feel about her as an athlete. She always appeared to always try her best to get the job done, but faced a greater than average share of setbacks and bad luck along the way. Of the top USA WAG competitors this decade, I would say she is probably the one with the most underdog appeal. People root for her more universally than many of her compatriots, because we have watched her hit walls so many times and we all want her to get her slice of good luck.

BUT, imagine if it was Nastia Liukin who had fallen from the beam twice and posted the lowest score. If she was granted a trip to nationals, people would not be sympathetic. They would say she was undeserving and in it for the fame. However, Nastia DID hit. She scored the 14.000+ she needed and pretty much smashed it. Sure her connections were a bit off, but they always were anyway.

Switch ring less than great, but on the whole pretty impressive

This is why we have frameworks like these qualification rules in life: they give a structure to certain events and prevent unfair biases stemming from subjective likes and dislikes. It does not help in this situation that gossip in previous years has been that Chellsie is not favoured by Marta, allowing many of us to get hotheaded and claim this is a personal attack based on personal opinions. When all the information is viewed from a cold, non emotional standpoint it simply boils down to this: Memmel knew what had to happen, and sadly she couldn’t make it happen on this occasion.

Transparency

In what may seem like a contradiction to the above, in the end it will pretty much be Marta’s decision who goes to London. Although I just now advocated following rules to the letter, if Marta really thought Chellsie has a shot at a spot on her dream team, she would have found a way to get her through to Nationals. So in a way, although it may have been a simple case of rule following, this could have been Marta’s way of saying “you are not going to be on my team, so save yourself the stress and call it a day here”. At least it is honest.

Health

Not to make assumptions about Memmel in any way, but if her general portrayal is anything to go by it would seem that her determination and fighting spirit got her to where she is, and not necessarily her health. Given that she wouldn’t make the Olympic team (obviously that is my opinion, but I am pretty sure most people would concur) maybe it IS a good thing for her to stop before something else happens.

WHY I HATE THE DECISION

The Pan-Ams issue

Shawn Johnson does not have to qualify because she attended the Pan American games last year. Chellsie was named to this team but withdrew. Now, it could be argued that being deemed good enough to represent the USA internationally last year should earn Memmel a ticket to Nationals even though she didn’t actually go.

Was this all about London?

If Chellsie was only continuing to try for a London team spot, then this might be less of an issue as mentioned above. However, perhaps she would have been just fine with bowing out after a good show at nationals and another go in front of her fans?

Legacy

Chellsie is one of the faces of noughties US gymnastics and, as discussed, a huge favourite with the fans. Sure, the rules are not made to be broken, but surely in certain circumstances room can be made for the long time contributors? Even if just for the sake of making Nationals a better competition for the fans to watch.

Further, and I appreciate I am about to enter dangerously subjective and speculative territory here, but WHY did Chellsie have shoulder problems anyway? Was it indeed because she put her health and individual competitive record on the line by slogging it out for the team effort in 2006? Perhaps if Memmel was the kind of person to shy away from giving a team meet everything she had, she would have a stack more world medals and a much shorter health bill.

Some people might think that a young girl who sacrificed her health for USA gymnastics should be granted one more day on the national podium. (and indeed many do, as revealed by the petition being signed here: https://www.change.org/petitions/usa-gymnastics-usag-olympic-selection-committee-steve-penny-allow-gymnast-chellsie-memmel-to-compete-at-the-national-championships )

WHAT NONE OF THIS WILL CHANGE

-          Chellsie will forever be a double individual world champion

-          Chellsie will forever be a USA gymnastics legend

-          Chellsie will forever be the girl who repeatedly stunned commentators, fans, bloggers and the world with her ability to bounce back and look amazing again

Nothing like proving the gruesome threesome wrong

Whenever I think of Chellsie Memmel I am instantly reminded of this: one day, 3 stuck dismounts and two stuck double pikes. Memmel was always a pleasure to watch and her contributions will be sorely missed.

Wham, Bam, Thankyou Memmel. 

Pictures: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipMiyxr702sroAPfimbAtJR7Cc-zM7trZqQi2CVDYvr_D2-8G-st7UYBSngYnFUTg90T56TfwlQKO7GvJueie_Ya9KVlZXRCH7GG1ynirTBu5Wc4LfjjrqA9BG-iuO9Iv_Fl2CcYI4_fQ/s1600/ChellsieMemmel.jpg,  

An Absolute Classic

Why the US Classic will give us more clues about the US Olympic lineup than we have had all year

For over a year now, everyone (especially me) has been talking, pondering, speculating and arguing over who is going to make the USA 2012 Olympic team. A lot of ideas and opinions have been thrown around, and it has become very popular to say that the USA is the deepest country in the world.

However, we haven’t had any concrete evidence to get a clear answer as to who will be going and why. Sure, we have seen the odd competition such as the American Cup (the first annual Gabby Douglas appreciation event) and the Pacific Rim championships. But none will rival what we will find out next week at the “Secret” US Classic. As soon as the first day of senior competition comes to an end, we will be closer than ever to knowing who is going to London, and who isn’t.

WHY?

One word. BARS.

There is a hole in the USA’s repertoire, and there has been for some time. The uneven bars have never, really, been their strength. Even when there have been fantastic individuals, the team as a whole seemed to shine elsewhere (except perhaps in 2004). For this entire quad, the US has lacked superstar bar workers, leading many to believe that this apparatus could prove to be their Achilles heel come London.

However, the situation is not nearly as bad as many of us predicted, and the US does have the prospect of three bar routines with start values in the mid-6 to 7 range. However, with Mustafina, Komova and Grishina posting mammoth bars scores at Euros (even without their antipicated upgrades), Russia need only get an Amanar or two and the US vault advantage gap is closed.

The Classic will reveal some very important information about all of the USA’s bar hopes...

NASTIA LIUKIN

Without a doubt the most highly anticipated performer in next week’s competition. The last any of us saw of Nastia, bar some admittedly beautiful training pictures from earlier this year, was her watered down beam set from the 2009 nationals.

Nastia’s bar work is pretty legendary and has the potential to be the highest scoring of any American. However, Nastia has certainly been given the speculative advantage from the “benefit of the doubt” - no one knows anything about what she is capable of, so people instead subconsciously defer to her past successes. Rumours from her gym and statements from Nastia herself have painted a slightly less optimistic picture of what Nastia can bring on the bars. Training news has been very positive with regards to the beam, but little has been said about bars except that getting a routine back together has been a rough road.

In a live Twitter chat with Nastia, courtesy of @ATTTeamUSA, one twitter user asked Nastia: “will you compete bars next week?”. The reply wasn’t exactly crystal clear: “not sure yet, definitely beam”. Whilst I am excited to see Nastia back on the beam, one thing is for sure: beam does not get her to London, bars most definitely does. It would be a shame for her not to go up on the bars next week at least just for some experience of performing in front of a crowd on the event again. Even if she made mistakes, it would still benefit her to get her skills out there again.

What will we know? If she does bars and beam, we will have our first clear idea of whether she has a shot or not. If she hits and has decent start values, even if they are not bigger than Bross’s she might have a better chance because she is probably healthier. If she DOESN’T do bars, we will know that she isn’t ready with less than 100 days to go and her stock will go down.

REBECCA BROSS

It has certainly not been an easy Olympic road for Bross, who is still recovering from a multitude of injuries, not just her high profile knee accident last year. Bross announced a few days ago that her focus has narrowed and will now be on the bars and the beam. Now, if Becca can put together a top notch bar set AND prove that she can hit it, this shouldn’t hurt her too much. However, it does mean that she is now in direct competition with her gym-mate Liukin, and we can be absolutely sure that a five member team will not contain two beam and bars specialists.

Bross’s bar work has been around for a long time, has been scored at two different world championships and she medalled at both. With her beam, had she not fallen in 2009 and performed in the final as she did in the AA she would have been rewarded with a gold medal, and actually did win a silver in 2010. Therefore Bross has a proven track record of excellence on her two apparatus of focus. However, so does Nastia albeit a bit longer ago.

The problem is not what Bross is lacking on bars and beam, it is the niche she misses by not competing floor. If Bross was able to compete TF quality routines on three of four apparatus, I think she would be pretty hard to leave at home. Although bars is where a USA girl can really stamp her ticket, Bross ties Iordache for the highest floor score in major competition this quad, and this would have been an invaluable asset when staking her claim for the games.

What will we know? Whether the cutting down of events was tactical or due to declining health and being unable to cope. If Bross can put up a good bars score and convincingly land her Patterson dismount then she will still be in the running.

GABRIELLE DOUGLAS

An in-shape Dougie could potentially be used on any of the four events, and hence Gabby’s chances for London look a lot more concrete than either of the above. Gabby’s problem has always been consistency, and although the fan perceptions of her as a headcase are a little overblown in my opinion, the last thing Marta will want is a repeat Alicia situation. ESPECIALLY on bars: some speculative team configurations mean putting Jordyn up for TF bars. This would be fine if a top bar worker hits afterwards, but if Gabby was relied upon for the highest bars score and missed the USA would be in pretty deep trouble.

Therefore, all Gabby really needs to do is prove that she can hit a top shelf bar routine with no problems. She already has the skills, and her routine looks pretty handsome. She just has to put it together when it counts. Same goes for all events really. Gabby has the tricks but her routines can look fantastic one minute and a complete car crash the next.

What will we know? We already know Gabby is more than capable. If she hits bars out of the park then her case is stronger than ever.

ANNA LI

Many people might wonder why she is in this list: she hasn’t exactly been at the top of the list in terms of realistic Olympic team expectations. However, why not? If Li can put something truly fantastic together on bars I would say she has a realistic shot. Obviously for Anna to factor in would require a hell of a lot more than from the others: nothing less than a mammoth routine would do. It would take a routine which could realistically score in the high fifteens, but if she managed this then she would not be out of the picture just yet.

What will we know? If USA’s only one event hopeful has anything like a shred of a chance for London.

Elsewhere...

Although bars are the publicized weakness of the US, they aren’t exactly turning away floor workers at the door either. Everyone will be watching to see who can put in a performance worthy of high scores.

Of particular importance here will be competitors like Mckayla Maroney. Maroney, as a world champion, has a great shot of making the team. Yes, vault is saturated BUT Maroney can happily outscore other US Amanars by around four tenths on a good day, which isn’t dissimilar to the advantage of another bar workers bar score over Wieber’s. If she can make a convincing claim for a TF floor spot though, her campaign is only strengthened.

Wieber is a lock for the team barring some terrible injury, but I can’t imagine her not being in London. On the topic of floor, recent videos of US camp verification (that I saw in a cool post on http://gymqueenzlive.blogspot.com.au/) show that Jordyn is working a great double layout on floor.

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh4WOK5G9Zo&feature=g-u-u

London ain’t everything...

It’s important to remember that the Olympics are not the be all and end all. I am excited also to see Casey Jo Magee, a gymnast with entirely different aspirations whose beam is always interesting to watch. Also, I left out Chellsie Memmel in the above analysis, because who can say where she will be up to. No matter what happens though I enjoy watching her compete whatever the weather. 

Secret Classic competitors: 

Capped from http://usagym.org/pages/women/events/2012/secretusclassic/

SO Exciting! 

Pictures: https://usagym.org/pages/women/events/2012/secretusclassic/images/logo.jpg, http://www.unitedathletic.com/images/UAI%20CLUB%20BARS%20WITH%20MATS.jpg, http://imgsrv.wina.com/image/WiresGraphic/2012-05-15T024512Z_1_CBRE84E07NI00_RTROPTP_2_SPORTS-US-OLY-GYMN-GAWIAA-LIUKIN-CAMP.JPG, http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Rebecca+Bross+USOC+Athlete+Portraits+Wf2EG4l9mlsl.jpg, http://gymnasticscoaching.com/new/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Magee.jpg

The European Championships - The E Panel's Highlights

TEAM - ROMANIA RETURNS

The team final, being regarded by many as the big return of Romania, saw the de-throning of the reigning team champions Russia to Romania’s heady mix of the old and the new. Romania really did put in a brilliant performance, stunningly solid as usual but also creative and interesting to watch in a manner that is not always the case for the Deva girls.

For me, this team centres on Ponor, whose statuesque presence draws instant attention from spectators. Catalina has always been thrilling to watch: her feline features are matched by a catlike ability for solidity on the balance beam. Her new routine looks comfortable and rock hard, and is the closest she has looked to her 2004 self since her golden heyday. I could never fail to be blown away by her signature combination: onodi to backhandspring to layout. After spending years bemoaning tedious beam flight “combinations”, this is not so much a breath of fresh air but a full-on oxygen mask: an unusual, original flight combination on beam that is actually connected. Further, Ponor’s ability to upgrade does not disappoint. Not only has the architecture of the routine changed but there are some fresh skills: a switch ring, which isn’t half bad, and a beautiful double turn.

Rightfully, this fantastic beam set went on to win her gold in the event final. I could gush all day about Ponor. For me, she is the real queen of the comebacks. Not once has she ever looked tired, overstretched or even, really, physically challenged in any way. Her poise, apparent tongue-in-cheek attitude and perfectly balanced physique (not too muscled, not underfed) makes her one of the most watchable current competitors. I would love to see her break some records with some Olympic medals later this year.

Similar leotard to Athens. And really, not much has changed has it? Incredible.

Romania’s winning happened, mainly, on the floor. For two reasons: they were fantastic, and Russia were not. Mother Russia didn’t qualify a single gymnast to floor finals due to a slew of errors in qualifying, and although thing improved in finals it was nowhere near enough to touch Romania whose lowest floor score was still better than Russia’s highest. All three of their athletes were fantastic. Ponor seems to have recovered from her terrible copter-leg syndrome and things are looking much cleaner. Iordache, on the other hand, not only performed well but made a good case to be a top contender for floor gold in London, convincingly taking the top spot by matching Rebecca Bross's quad-high score of 15.233. 

GREAT Sticks on the double double and whip triple, and nice leaps too

Romania ended the weekend with the team gold, and three of the four event final golds. This fantastic sweep really does go some way to silence those who say Romania has no shot at a medal in London. There have also been twitter rumours that some of the girls have amanars, but were not performing them to avoid injury: a tactic which must have a tinge of sadness when viewed by Mustafina. 

What this means for the team final later this year is unclear. Yes, Romania won and by quite a margin, but Russia did not exactly have a good day. However, both teams had their major stars present and competing. Suddenly the idea of an Olympic team medal for Romania does not seem so farfetched. Could they even challenge for the silver?

SANDRA DEFENDS

Sandra Izbasa successfully defended her vault title, and I have to say I am really happy she did. Although I am rooting for Chuso, and have been a big fan of hers for many years, I do think that for some reasons she gets off very lightly in terms of execution criticism from fans. Her rudi has really deteriorated, although her Tsuk 1.5 is a really lovely vault. 

Sandra, on the other hand, had some fantastic execution AND an impressive upgrade. Finally we have seen what a Mustafina (RO half on 1/1 LO) SHOULD look like. It was by no means perfect, and she did start to bend at the knees about half way into the 1.5 somersault, but it is an impressive upgrade nonetheless and a good looking vault (a world away from the attempts we have seen of it so far, but seeing Maroney’s version in the coming months should be a real treat if the rumours are true).

Good form, good vaults and a great gymnast.

MUSTAFINA - CHALLENGE OVER?

Mustafina’s return to health has been eagerly anticipated since moments after her injury at this very competition a year ago. Aliya has made an impressive recovery and is putting together some fantastic gymnastics, particularly on the bars where her Team Final routine scored a competition high of 15.833 - a score which sets her up as a serious challenge or the Olympic podium.

Impressive

Throughout her absence Aliya has remained within people’s prediction list for the OG AA podium. Speculative and potentially pessimistic as it is, with the games looming questions HAVE to be asked as to whether this is possible based on what we are seeing. Floor has clearly been difficult to get back: although her opening pass of double Arabian to stag is beautiful, there are clearly some fundamental twisting problems. It is as if Ponor infected Mustafina with her copter-leg syndrome only to recover herself. Aliya has a long way to go, though, if she wants to avoid the hefty deductions that this car crash execution will be levying - even on her DTY her legs are all over the place showing this is clearly not an issue of difficulty but of technique.

Perhaps if something big can happen in the next few weeks, she will have a shot. However, I think Aliya’s only legitimate shot at gold based on current evidence is on the bars. I think, perhaps, that we are unknowingly in a 1992 situation: we have all anticipated (or most of us, anyway) the wrong showdown. It seems unlikely to involve Mustafina at the very top. It may even, dare I say, be difficult for Komova to make a legitimate case for the very top. Based on this weekend’s performances though it is clear that Iordache has a better chance than first thought.

GREAT FLOOR FROM UNDERDOG GYMNASTS

One pleasant surprise that has surfaced in the winter of this quad is the unexpected depth and quality of floor exercise, with the Tokyo floor EF being deeper and more exciting than several Olympic finals on the same event.

This weekend some floor highlights for me came from unexpected places. Julie Croket, of Belgium, made the final at worlds and her routine is still super impressive. I love her choreography and, as always, I am a complete sucker for a front double so she is right up my street.

Rebecca Tunney, sadly, has been more famous recently for her screw ups at the American Cup than for anything positive about her gymnastics. But this weekend was a different story. Her floor routine was mature, well structured and at times rather beautiful.

Livchikova, who has developed something of a cult following for her artistry and presentation, is back from injury and did not disappoint. Sadly the comparative lack of difficulty keeps her away from the top.

HANNAH WHELAN

A week ago, there was a general feeling that Euros would be individually uneventful for us Brits, with Beth Tweddle out. However Hannah Whelan, who has been a great force in British gymnastics for many a year now, performed over and above expectation. Scooping a bronze in the beam final (which, admittedly, was open to anyone who didn’t fall - but then again hitting at the right time is the name of the game) meant a first on the apparatus for GBR. She followed this, more convincingly, with a bronze medal on the floor exercise with a clean and artistically innovative routine.

There was no All Around competition at this championships, but taking results from the “unofficial AA” (individual totals during the teak competition), Hannah finished third here as well. This is an astounding achievement for a British gymnast at the last Euros before an Olympic Games.

A HINT OF VAULT SADNESS

I really enjoyed the vault final, and particularly the variety of vaults we saw. A definite highlight for me was Fasana of Italy and her second vault: a front layout one and a half somersault. This vault reminds me so much of the 1997-2000 quad and during this time it was considered as a worthy vault by the code. Sadly this is not the case anymore and under the current system is only worth a 5.0.

It was really interesting to see, and I think it is a very,very good looking vault, and probably more difficult than the code indicates. Mitch Fenner seemed to agree.

Only a small point, but it seemed a real shame that this interesting vault, well performed and executed, would not be able to make any splash on its own. Christine Still remarked something about how she should perfect it and then move to add twists. Sad, that a good vault can be considered only as a starting point rather than a successful performance in its own right.

FINAL PODIUMS

VT: 1. Izbasa 2. Chusovitina 3. Steingruber 

UB: 1.Komova 2. Grishina 2. Kononenko (still loving the tkatchev half to jaeger)

BB: 1. Ponor 2. Iordache 3. Whelan

FX: 1. Iordache 2. Ponor 3. Whelan

Great competition!

Pictures: http://i2.media.daumcdn.net/photo-media/201205/13/yonhap/20120513232209346.jpg, http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_scaled_mobile/hash/f9/64/f9649b20fc03b30532263417dd24e0cf.jpg, http://the-all-around.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/11101788-Artistic-WCh-Tokyo-JPN-2011-AFANASYEVA-Ksenia-RUS.jpg, http://images.sportinglife.com/12/05/330/Hannah-Whelan-2012-Euros_2762922.jpg, http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/p/sp/getty/c0/fullj.c3fec0b7d84189028f4ab4d12ab9f80b/c3fec0b7d84189028f4ab4d12ab9f80b-getty-510818070.jpg, http://www.doublefront.net/wp-content/themes/Yen/timthumb.php?src=http://www.doublefront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Brussels-20122-1024x524.png&w=580&zc=1

Get well soon Beth

I awoke this morning to some disturbing news. See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/17843966

Now, there are lots of things to worry about in an Olympic year. You want all your favourites to hit their routines. You want minimal falls in team finals and AA to give as exciting a competition as possible. You want judging to be fair and accurate. The main worry though, for me at least, regards injuries: the worst possible thing to happen is for some of your favourites to be pulled at the last minute with an injury (Chellsie Memmel in Athens AND Beijing is a particularly heartbreaking example).

I will be totally honest here and admit that, of all the wonderful possibilities for London, by far my greatest concern is Beth Tweddle medalling on bars. Why?

1.       She is amongst my favourite currently competing gymnasts, which although biased is an important factor to state

2.       Her bar work has been world class for a decade, which I believe deserves Olympic recognition

3.       She has been the most innovative in the field for several years, and builds her difficulty through a variety of difficult combinations as opposed to repetitive pirouette work

4.       She must be under immense pressure, both from herself and from the British press

I understand Beth’s bars are not everybody’s cup of tea, but then again I am not suggesting that she necessarily win the gold (although I personally would like her to). I think most fans would struggle to deny that Beth’s routine is top 3 in the world right now.

But Beth has always has an inconsistent streak, sadly making somewhat of a habit of making errors in prelims. An injury and operation, however small, will have to affect her training time. I just hope this won’t affect her too much heading into the games.

As Beth herself says in the BBC article - better for this to happen now than later in the year, a sentiment with obvious truth. I just wish this didn’t have to happen whatsoever, and I am sure Beth does too. I hope it is what it sounds like: a minor operation with a good outcome, and that this knee does not become an Achilles heel.

GET. WELL. SOON. 

Picture: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Sport/Pix/pictures/2009/4/6/1239002197730/Beth-Tweddle-001.jpg