Sunday, 29 July 2012

Place your bets...



What an epic day. Lets take stock, shall we?




Top 10 AA qualifiers:


  1. Viktoria Komova
  2. Alexandra Raisman
  3. Gabrielle Douglas
  4. Aliya Mustafina
  5. Deng Linlin
  6. Vanessa Ferrari
  7. Asuka Teramoto
  8. Larisa Iordache
  9. Huang Quishang
  10. Sandra Izbasa
WHAT a qualifier, and what upset about Wieber. But enough of that. Huge congratulations to Raisman for pulling off the meet of her life. Here we find ourselves in a similar situation to one year ago. Komova performed well, not stunningly, but well in the qualifier. The difference this year is the all important Amanar, which is looking good. The question now is whether she can improve on this in the finals, which I think she will need to in order to hold off the Americans.

This competition will be whisker close and could potentially be won or lost on stuck landings and tiny wobbles. The decider will most likely be beam: the area in which both Komova and Douglas are most likely to falter. Iordache has been tipped to be amongst the challengers but her foot injury will probably keep her out of the top spot, which to my mind will be a battle between the aforementioned American and Russian.
Interesting to note the 5th place QF position of Deng Linlin, and the lack of teammate Yao Yinnan, who did not look anywhere near her top form today.

Want to win: Close, but I am going to go with Douglas.

Prediction to win: Closer, but my money is on Komova by a whisker.

Other medallist hopes: Would love a medal for Mustafina. For Komova and Douglas, I want the win to be by a fraction and not a fall so by this logic it would be bronze for Musty. Having said that I would love for Raisman to medal, just because it would be so unexpected. Elsewhere I really want Whelan in the top ten again.




Top 8 Qualifiers:
  1. Mckayla Maroney
  2. Sandra Izbasa
  3. Maria Paseka
  4. Oksana Chusovitina
  5. Yamilet Pena
  6. Janine Berger
  7. Brittany Rogers
  8. Elsabeth Black
All the big names present and correct, but this final may not be as academic as people once thought. Maroney is the clear leader after QF with 15.800, but Izbasa scored a tidy 15.316 WITHOUT her Amanar OR her Cheng. If she hits that on the day she will beat Maroney in terms of D score and if this is the case, Maroney will have to make it on her execution alone.

This is definitely possible for her, and in my mind she is still the rightful winner. I would love for Isbasa to take silver and believe that she will. Bronze seems to be the medal to fight for in any case, and presumably Pena and Chuso will be fighting it out for this one.

Want to win: Maroney

Prediction to win: Maroney

Other medallist wishes: Izbasa silver and Chuso bronze.




Top 8 Qualifiers:
  1. Beth Tweddle
  2. Kexin He
  3. Viktoria Komova
  4. Yinnan Yao
  5. Aliya Mustafina
  6. Gabrielle Douglas
  7. Elisabeth Seitz
  8. Koko Tsurumi

Now obviously I am thrilled with this. GO BETH. Bars routine of her career I would say. It was fantastic to see her put everything together under pressure, and that dismount was stunning.

Any hint of being unbiased and neutral truly shelved for a minute, I undoubtedly want Tweddle to take this. I think she wholeheartedly deserves it. However, it will not be easy for her. Any of Komova, Mustafina or Kexin could take this away. Kexin performed a 7.1 difficulty and she can potentially up it (although I doubt that she would given her consistency issues with the harder version). Regardless of this, she hit her routine royally and proved to everyone that she is not quite done yet.

Komova was beautiful as usual and outscored Mustafina. Both have brand new elements/combinations. Mustafina’s inbar 1/1 – pak – stalder – khorkina variation is super impressive.

Want to win: Tweddle

Predict to win: Tweddle (by a whisker, IF she puts it together)

Other medallist wishes: either two Russians, or Mustafina and Douglas (or a Russian and He Kexin). Very undecided on this one.



Top 8 Qualifiers:
  1. Lu Sui
  2. Victoria Komova
  3. Gabrielle Douglas
  4. Linlin Deng
  5. Alexandra Raisman
  6. Ksenia Afanaseva
  7. Catalina Ponor
  8. Diane Bulimar
Beam was an interesting one today. No surprises about Sui, her routine was great and I think she is the logical winner. However, her performance at the test event proved that she can royally mess up as well as totally smash it cold. Still, she is the deserving winner in my eyes.

Glad to see Komova so high up despite all her consistency issues on this event. Having said that i do think 15.233 was a bit of a gift considering the two big breaks she had in there. But in fairness Ponor had a pretty big dip and she still qualified, so I guess it balances. On the topic of Ponor, I desperately want her to medal here. There should be some sort of lifetime achievement award for contributions to beam flight series. She would get my vote.

How strange it is to see “headcase” Gabby Douglas qualifying third whilst “rock” Wieber fails to qualify at all. Seems like years of fake connections came back at once to bite Wieber squarely in the ass. My opinions on this are mixed: she never really connected that full twist to anything but still got world level credit, so shouldn’t they at least be consistent with that marking style?

Want to win: Lu Sui

Prediction to win: Lu Sui

Other medallist wishes: Any colour for Ponor, and an American.



Top 8 Qualifiers:
  1. Alexandra Raisman
  2. Sandra Izbasa
  3. Vanessa Ferrari
  4. Ksenia Afanaseva
  5. Lauren Mitchell
  6. Jordyn Wieber
  7. Catalina Ponor
  8. Aliya Mustafina


As expected, this is an EPIC floor final! Best Olympic final I can remember, in my humble opinion. After all, how often is it that we get to see the Gold medallists from the last two Olympics competing side by side for the podium?

My only complaints are the lack of Chinese representation, Beth Tweddle’s an eighth place alternate spot and Iordache missing her rightful smashed routine. Still, the quality of the field makes up for this.

Calling this one is difficult: there isn’t a single gymnast in this lineup who I wouldn’t want to see winning a medal. I am less offended that some by Aly Raisman’s floor. Yes it isn’t very artistic, but there has to be room for the powerhouse tumblers and she is certainly not lacking in that department. I would say, though, that I would prefer a more graceful routine to take the gold. For me, Izbasa’s routine is the best and I would love her to take the Gold. But I also want a medal for Mitchell, Afan, Ponor and Ferrari, and obviously that is impossible. There is a definite argument for Wieber as well. Given that this is her only EF in an Olympics she was expected to own, and given that she has one of the most memorable routines this quad, a medal for her wouldn’t go amiss either.

Want to win: Izbasa

Predict to win: Raisman

Other medallist wishes: Literally all of them. 





Do you agree? Disagree? Tell me! I really want to know what fans are thinking and what fans want to see happen in the coming weeks. 


Pictures: http://decanter.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/11150%7C0000026ca%7C872e_olympic-logo.pnghttp://img.poptower.com/pic-96861/viktoria-komova.jpg?d=1024http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7wuu9WC9c1qha4b4o1_1280.jpghttp://sports.inquirer.net/files/2012/07/Beth-Tweddle1.jpghttp://www.intlgymnast.com/image/sui_lu.jpghttp://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/c0.0.403.403/p403x403/315409_10150823266697168_1834494497_n.jpg



12 comments:

  1. I agree 100% - would be so great to see Ponor up on the podium, Tweddle for bars, and I don't think anyone can catch Maroney on vault - she is darn near a lock there, and deserves to be!

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  2. You seem to be very versed in women's gymnastics. Maybe you can answer this question for me. I was wondering... if the scores on the nbcolympics.com website are correct, how come Douglas doesn't qualify on the vault?

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  3. Kimble: Glad you agree!

    Lowendsoul: Douglas would indeed qualify for vault event finals if it were a one score qualification but to qualify for this event a gymnast needs to perform 2 different vaults and the scores are averaged (Gabby only performs one).
    It does seem silly that so many good vaulters don't try for event finals. I wrote an article about it called "crack open the vault" which you could read if you were interested: http://theepanel.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/crack-open-vault.html.

    Thanks for the comment!

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    1. Yes, I just realized that as I am watching the 2am replay from the qualifications. I distinctly remembered McKayla doing 2 vaults but I just thought maybe she didn't like her first vault and was opting for a better score (a clear indication that I don't yet completely understand the entire gymnastics scoring system).

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    2. I mean, because she stumbles so much at the end of her first vault (again... still learning)

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  4. Never mind. I found the answer. But I like this blog.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks! And I am always happy to answer questions if I can

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  5. I like your choices :)


    What I want:

    Team
    1st Russia
    2nd Romania
    3rd China

    AA
    1st Komova
    2nd Iordache
    3rd Mustafina

    Vault
    1st Maroney
    2nd Izbasa
    3rd Chuso

    Bars
    Any of Komova, Mustafina, Tweedle, He Kexin

    Beam
    1st Sui Lu
    2nd Komova (she just need to hit and it's beautiful)
    3rd Ponor

    Floor
    1st Afanasyeva (her floor is just awesome !)
    2nd Izbasa
    3rd I have no idea who I want in third lol. I just don't really want Raisman or Mitchell because I don't really like their routines...


    Now I know that USA will win the team meet, and I feel like one of the american (if not the two) will take the All Around also. But Komova can win this too, you just never know with her ! For vault I am sure of Maroney's win, I also know that Raisman is gonna win floor. Beam and bars are a bit more difficult to predict.


    (It's not the first time I'm reading your blog, but I never commented before because i'm obviously not very good in english lol. I really like your blog !)

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    1. Thanks for the comment, and I wouldn't say it is obvious at all! You speak fantastic English.

      Glad you agree. I am totally with you about Komova, you can never tell whether it is going to be magic or nightmare.

      Now that we have the team final start lists: http://www.fig-docs.com/microsites/london12/results/files/sl/wag/sl_wag_team_f.pdf, it is a bit clearer what we can expect tomorrow. I worry for Iordache considering that she isn't in the lineup on floor - doesn't bode well for her AA readiness unless of course they are protecting her precisely for this reason.

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    2. Well thank you, that's really nice !

      Actually I think Komova was fantastic (minus the vault) in the All Around Final, She could have been Olympic champion (if only) !

      Team Final was exactly what everyone expected. I'm glad Romania finished in third, even if i'm a little sad for China ... Maroney's vault in final was incredible !

      All Around could have been better, really. Without Iordache (at top form), Wieber and Jinnan it was a bit empty. It was Komova VS Douglas for gold, and Musty VS Aly for the bronze. No one else could reach them even when they had mistakes.

      Maroney missing vault was a shock to me ! And also Chuso not having a medal was sad :( But i'm still glad for Sandra.
      Bars was really good for many reasons but on the other hand i'm still sad that Tweddle made a mistake (which costed her a better medal), and that Komova missed a medal :(
      Too much crashing on beam, I really feel like Komova gave up after All Around final ... (or maybe after bars final), the two chinese were wonderful ! I just realise that Douglas is the first All Arounder that didn't won a single "individual event" medal !
      Floor, I don't like Raisman's routine at all but her first pass is really good, I think her score was a bit high (but she still should have won of course !) ! And I'm sad Afan didn't make it because it was really the best floor routine of the year for me ! And I am so happy for Mustafina ! Another medal !


      Overall I think the games were a bit disappointing... I really enjoyed watching the russians but only when they hit (not that much, unfortunately) I think Alya was the rock of the team ! I also liked the chinese on bars and beam of course ! They were beautiful no ? I absolutely loved Maroney's vault ... I still can't believe what happened in final :(. The romanians were good, even if i am not an absolut fan of them. But I'm still sad about Iordache she should have been in top form and win an AA medal and gold on beam and floor ! (No less !)

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  6. My dream podiums
    AA
    1. Iordache
    2. Mustafina
    3. Komova/Douglas

    VT:
    Chuso
    Maroney
    Izbasa

    UB
    Tweddle
    Mustafina
    Komova/He Kexin/ Douglas

    BB
    Iordache (I think they'll pull Bulimar)
    Ponor
    Grishina/Afanasyeva (or Finnegan or Millousi but...)

    FX:
    Izbasa
    Afanasyeva
    Ponor/Ferrari

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  7. Talk about an incredible AA analysis. Prediction spot on, prophecy fulfilled.

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