Don't look back in anger...

Hard to imagine that it is all over. You wish for something for four years and when it arrives, it flies by like a freight train. The individual event finals of London 2012 were ridiculously unexpected for me (Deng Linlin beam champion?! - NEVER would I have predicted that). after a bit of settling time I thought I would consolidate my main thoughts after the individual competitions.

What The E Panel will remember fondly

Gabrielle Douglas - 2012 AA Champion

Already the issue of Gabs vs Vika has been hotly debated, and it is likely to be bitched about/staunchly defended for the next 4 years. It is impossible to discuss this without bringing in personal opinion and whilst I usually try to avoid extended chunks of personal rambling I will indulge myself a little here.

I love Gabby’s gymnastics. I think he has great form, lovely amplitude and a zesty quality to the skills she performs that few others managed. My real clicking moment with Douglas came at the 2012 American cup on her final skill: the split leap out of the double tuck which was the highest and most exciting I had, and have, seen.

I love Komova’s gymnastics too, and have done for a much longer period. I first saw Komova on some grainy youtube videos three years ago and was instantly mesmerized by her unusual and fantastic ability to combine difficulty with supreme execution. When asked in 2009 to predict the 2012 AA champion, I instantly tipped Viktoria Komova for the win.

Both Komova and Gabby suffered with the same problem: they had fantastic skills but seemed to suffer terribly with stage fright and often failed to perform when it mattered most. Both still have this in spades: Douglas is now the only AA champion not to possess any individual apparatus final medals due to edgy performances in both beam and bars finals. Komova fell afoul of the same curse.

The difference is that Gabby had a brilliant day when it counted. Komova didn’t. Although some of her performances were peppered with brilliance (her floor routine was the best of her life, and the best of the AA competition, making me wish she had made the EF) she was generally inconsistent and didn’t meet her potential on three of four events. Gabby on the other hand, although admittedly not floorless either, WAS the better gymnast that day (at least I think so) and that is why she won.

To sum up my general feeling, had Komova won, it would be a gold medal for the memory of her from 2 years ago. But the gold medal for Douglas was a recognition of the gymnast we see today.

Aliya Mustafina - 2012 UB Champion

Russia’s first WAG gold medal since Zamolodchikova and Queen Khorkina in Sydney 2000, and wasn’t Musty evocative of Khorki on their shared signature event?

Although patriotism tied me into routine for gold elsewhere, if I am honest I have loved Mustafina’s bars work ever since the 2010 worlds, which might as well be renamed the Aliya Mustafina welcome party. I love her execution and power, but more than this her originality. I never fail to be bowled over by her 1.5 twisting double tuck, not to mention her uncanny ability to nail it cold everytime.

There was a scary few moments when I thought my He Kexin prophecy may actually come true (I still reserve the right to be a little bit smug for calling it given she got silver in the end). Not that I dislike He Kexin, her bar work is undeniably impressive. But a win for Kexin would show an unfair lack of recognition of the developments bars has undergone in the last four years: changing from a three minute pirouette slog into an exciting connection and release led “Russian/Tweddle” style romp. 

Aly Raisman - 2012 FX Champion

OK, so I haven’t always been Aly’s biggest fan. Plenty of people haven’t been. However, for me Aly has been the most impressive gymnast of these games. The time has come to stop bemoaning toe point and artistry and recognize the positives: that Raisman should be recognized as one of the top USA team players of all time.

Sure, her floor isn’t my favourite to watch. However, that opening pass is so original, so risky and so brilliant that it is hard to argue with the verdict. Indeed, one of the best things about Raisman (and something that people rarely celebrate) is that she does NOT attempt skills that she can’t do...

Despite any complaints about presentation, Aly is no chucker and her floor composition is testament to this. Her leaps are all complete, her tumbles speak for themselves and my favourite thing is her spin - ridiculously simple, but she can do it.

My main thought is that I wanted her to leave these games with an individual medal. I would have preferred it to be AA bronze, but I love that she won here, although admittedly this is not just based on an impartial view of the routines themselves.

Beth Tweddle gets her first Olympic medal on her final day of Olympic competition

I won’t do my usual Tweddle gush. It is clear what I think about her and her routine. I am just thrilled she managed to pull it off and intensely relieved that she moved up a place from Beijing.

Things The E Panel would rather forget

The vault final

OUCH. It began with a crash and ended with open mouthed shock. This vault final was a perfect example of how nothing can be predicted at the Olympic level.

I cannot even imagine how Maroney must feel. The one time she crashes a vault in competitive memory and it comes in the event finals of her signature apparatus. This is a great shame, as everyone is in agreement that Maroney is undeniably the best vaulter in the world. However, as always, it is not enough to be able to do the vault well: it has to be done well on the night, and this wasn’t. Really, she should be happy to have gotten a silver with a fall.

On an impartial level, sweeping aside any bias towards Maroney, this final does little for vault as an event. Two Olympics in a row, and both since the introduction of the open ended code, have seen crashed vaults make the podium. It isn’t really the direction we should be moving in, and I think harsher penalties for falls are needed.

There is a potential silver lining however: This failure may stimulate Maroney to continue competing. I would love for this to happen.

Sandra Izbasa FX EF

Falling at the final hurdle on a routine that should certainly have been medal worthy is not how I wanted Sandra to end her second Olympics. I guess the unexpected vault gold should take the sting out of this somewhat, but it took the pop out of a final which I had been looking forward to for a year. 

Beth's Dismount

So she got the bronze, and for that I am grateful. However, I wanted gold for Beth, or failing that at least the silver. Mainly, I wanted her to beat He Kexin, and she couldn't.

The reason was the dismount. Again. Two Olympics and two giant steps from a double tuck variation. I am unbelieveably glad it didn’t knock her down into fourth - the last few routines of that final had my heart racing at dangerous levels. 

Tie Breaks

...A full article to follow

Roll on Rio. 

Pictures: http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/001/821/640/Picture33_crop_exact.jpg?w=650&h=440&q=75, http://img004.lazygirls.info/people/viktoria_komova/viktoria_komova_london_olympics_t2Gwxn1.sized.jpg, http://linapps.s3.amazonaws.com/linapps/photomojo/lintvnews.com/photos/2012/07/g3638-golden-moments-of-the-games/76659-aliya-mustafina-07874.jpg, http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8g0ep8ygp1r41wizo1_500.jpg, http://media.salon.com/2012/08/maroney_rect-460x307.jpg

Place your bets...

What an epic day. Lets take stock, shall we?

Top 10 AA qualifiers:

1. Viktoria Komova
2. Alexandra Raisman
3. Gabrielle Douglas
4. Aliya Mustafina
5. Deng Linlin
6. Vanessa Ferrari
7. Asuka Teramoto
8. Larisa Iordache
9. Huang Quishang
10. Sandra Izbasa

WHAT a qualifier, and what upset about Wieber. But enough of that. Huge congratulations to Raisman for pulling off the meet of her life. Here we find ourselves in a similar situation to one year ago. Komova performed well, not stunningly, but well in the qualifier. The difference this year is the all important Amanar, which is looking good. The question now is whether she can improve on this in the finals, which I think she will need to in order to hold off the Americans.

This competition will be whisker close and could potentially be won or lost on stuck landings and tiny wobbles. The decider will most likely be beam: the area in which both Komova and Douglas are most likely to falter. Iordache has been tipped to be amongst the challengers but her foot injury will probably keep her out of the top spot, which to my mind will be a battle between the aforementioned American and Russian.

Interesting to note the 5^th place QF position of Deng Linlin, and the lack of teammate Yao Yinnan, who did not look anywhere near her top form today.

Want to win: Close, but I am going to go with Douglas.

Prediction to win: Closer, but my money is on Komova by a whisker.

Other medallist hopes: Would love a medal for Mustafina. For Komova and Douglas, I want the win to be by a fraction and not a fall so by this logic it would be bronze for Musty. Having said that I would love for Raisman to medal, just because it would be so unexpected. Elsewhere I really want Whelan in the top ten again.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Mckayla Maroney
2. Sandra Izbasa
3. Maria Paseka
4. Oksana Chusovitina
5. Yamilet Pena
6. Janine Berger
7. Brittany Rogers
8. Elsabeth Black

All the big names present and correct, but this final may not be as academic as people once thought. Maroney is the clear leader after QF with 15.800, but Izbasa scored a tidy 15.316 WITHOUT her Amanar OR her Cheng. If she hits that on the day she will beat Maroney in terms of D score and if this is the case, Maroney will have to make it on her execution alone.

This is definitely possible for her, and in my mind she is still the rightful winner. I would love for Isbasa to take silver and believe that she will. Bronze seems to be the medal to fight for in any case, and presumably Pena and Chuso will be fighting it out for this one.

Want to win: Maroney

Prediction to win: Maroney

Other medallist wishes: Izbasa silver and Chuso bronze.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Beth Tweddle
2. Kexin He
3. Viktoria Komova
4. Yinnan Yao
5. Aliya Mustafina
6. Gabrielle Douglas
7. Elisabeth Seitz
8. Koko Tsurumi

Now obviously I am thrilled with this. GO BETH. Bars routine of her career I would say. It was fantastic to see her put everything together under pressure, and that dismount was stunning.

Any hint of being unbiased and neutral truly shelved for a minute, I undoubtedly want Tweddle to take this. I think she wholeheartedly deserves it. However, it will not be easy for her. Any of Komova, Mustafina or Kexin could take this away. Kexin performed a 7.1 difficulty and she can potentially up it (although I doubt that she would given her consistency issues with the harder version). Regardless of this, she hit her routine royally and proved to everyone that she is not quite done yet.

Komova was beautiful as usual and outscored Mustafina. Both have brand new elements/combinations. Mustafina’s inbar 1/1 – pak – stalder – khorkina variation is super impressive.

Want to win: Tweddle

Predict to win: Tweddle (by a whisker, IF she puts it together)

Other medallist wishes: either two Russians, or Mustafina and Douglas (or a Russian and He Kexin). Very undecided on this one.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Lu Sui
2. Victoria Komova
3. Gabrielle Douglas
4. Linlin Deng
5. Alexandra Raisman
6. Ksenia Afanaseva
7. Catalina Ponor
8. Diane Bulimar

Beam was an interesting one today. No surprises about Sui, her routine was great and I think she is the logical winner. However, her performance at the test event proved that she can royally mess up as well as totally smash it cold. Still, she is the deserving winner in my eyes.

Glad to see Komova so high up despite all her consistency issues on this event. Having said that i do think 15.233 was a bit of a gift considering the two big breaks she had in there. But in fairness Ponor had a pretty big dip and she still qualified, so I guess it balances. On the topic of Ponor, I desperately want her to medal here. There should be some sort of lifetime achievement award for contributions to beam flight series. She would get my vote.

How strange it is to see “headcase” Gabby Douglas qualifying third whilst “rock” Wieber fails to qualify at all. Seems like years of fake connections came back at once to bite Wieber squarely in the ass. My opinions on this are mixed: she never really connected that full twist to anything but still got world level credit, so shouldn’t they at least be consistent with that marking style?

Want to win: Lu Sui

Prediction to win: Lu Sui

Other medallist wishes: Any colour for Ponor, and an American.

Top 8 Qualifiers:

1. Alexandra Raisman
2. Sandra Izbasa
3. Vanessa Ferrari
4. Ksenia Afanaseva
5. Lauren Mitchell
6. Jordyn Wieber
7. Catalina Ponor
8. Aliya Mustafina

As expected, this is an EPIC floor final! Best Olympic final I can remember, in my humble opinion. After all, how often is it that we get to see the Gold medallists from the last two Olympics competing side by side for the podium?

My only complaints are the lack of Chinese representation, Beth Tweddle’s an eighth place alternate spot and Iordache missing her rightful smashed routine. Still, the quality of the field makes up for this.

Calling this one is difficult: there isn’t a single gymnast in this lineup who I wouldn’t want to see winning a medal. I am less offended that some by Aly Raisman’s floor. Yes it isn’t very artistic, but there has to be room for the powerhouse tumblers and she is certainly not lacking in that department. I would say, though, that I would prefer a more graceful routine to take the gold. For me, Izbasa’s routine is the best and I would love her to take the Gold. But I also want a medal for Mitchell, Afan, Ponor and Ferrari, and obviously that is impossible. There is a definite argument for Wieber as well. Given that this is her only EF in an Olympics she was expected to own, and given that she has one of the most memorable routines this quad, a medal for her wouldn’t go amiss either.

Want to win: Izbasa

Predict to win: Raisman

Other medallist wishes: Literally all of them. 

Do you agree? Disagree? Tell me! I really want to know what fans are thinking and what fans want to see happen in the coming weeks. 


Pictures: http://decanter.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/11150%7C0000026ca%7C872e_olympic-logo.png, http://img.poptower.com/pic-96861/viktoria-komova.jpg?d=1024, http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7wuu9WC9c1qha4b4o1_1280.jpg, http://sports.inquirer.net/files/2012/07/Beth-Tweddle1.jpg, http://www.intlgymnast.com/image/sui_lu.jpg, http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/c0.0.403.403/p403x403/315409_10150823266697168_1834494497_n.jpg

WAG Qualifications - The wait is over

An Apology

New job = new stress = I have been absent in the lead up to the games. Thanks for still checking the blog and sorry that there has been such a long hiatus, but I am going to try my best to cover as much of the WAG as I can.

Here is a quick summary of The E Panel’s highlights from this morning’s action.

First off, what’s with all the pink? The USA are going to be a bit too matchy-matchy if they pull out their trademark hotpink hotmess leotards. The stadium looks like it is sponsored by Britney Spears Fantasy. Can’t say I am a huge fan.

The North Greenwich Arena, looking more like the video set for "Katy Perry - California Girls" than a setting for Olympic History

Subdivision 1

Dos Santos, BRA – Floor

First off, I want to know what this girl has been drinking. 29 years old?! It looks like the last four years didn’t even happen. She is still just as bouncy and just as fun to watch. Great full twisting DLO and LOVE the two whips into double tuck. Nice job

Boczogo, HUN – vault and floor

I love watching this gymnast. Her form and physique are wonderful. Sadly she doesn’t quite put it together. Particularly on vault. In the air that 1.5TY looks gorgeous but she just crumbles into the ground on the landing. Shame, but great to see such great, classic presentation from underdog countries. The same goes for.....

Millousi, GRE – Floor

You can’t not watch Millousi when she is performing. Her stature and head to toe presentation is so eye catching. Yes, the tumbling has to be considered weak by today’s standards, but I love qualifications for this because it is like a window into the past. It is so good to see tumbles that a gymnast can comfortably compete and that look marvellous execution wise. Further, her dance and musical interpretation is very, very nice. Sad that this is probably the last we will see of her in these games.

Porras, GUAT – Beam

I hadn’t even heard of this girl and wasn’t expecting wonders, then she shut me right up with a planted BHS into tuck full. Wonderful. The leaps on her splits were fantastic, as was the whole set. 2.5 twist dismount was great in the air, and the messy landing was really the only thing wrong with the routine. Would be fantastic to see her in the beam final.

Pena, DOM – Vault

Probably the one to watch in this whole subdivision, and all eyes were definitely on Pena for one reason: the double front that has been splitting opinion for nearly a year now. Nothing sums up the difficulty/execution row more than a vault than can be sat down and still be pushing a fifteen score wise. Unfortunately, she DID sit down the vault. BUT, I don’t know if it is just me but I think it looks better in the air than it has done previously. 

As pointed out by Christine Still, the problem seems to be that she absolutely sprints down the runway and throws the vault long rather than high. The distance she gets from the horse is unbelievable but she just doesn’t get the air to rotate it comfortably. 14.933. 

Come the second vault, things improve. This is the first I have seen of Pena’s DTY and I thought it was fantastic. Execution wise the best vault she has ever produced and mechanically far more impressive than her 1.5TY ever was. This should sail her straight to the vault final, which will surely be an interesting event: if she puts the double front to her feet she will certainly medal. Even if she doesn’t, with a bit of help she might get a bronze which would be a bronze with a fall in two consecutive Olympics. I wonder what the fans would think of that?

Highlight – Pena’s DTY

Low Point – Hypolito’s makeup. I mean seriously, what was that?

Subdivision 2

Pihan, POL – floor

I LOVED this routine. The opening tumble was so unusual and so well performed: punch front layout full walkout through to 2.5 twist rebound stag. Presentation was fantastic and her leaps are just wonderful. Her legs seem to go on forever and she hits splits like it is the easiest thing in the world. Shame that making finals never reflects the finer touches, because this was a great routine. Don’t know what was going on with the glittery hair, though.

Ferrari, ITA – floor

I was mesmerised. Her tumbling is beautiful AND superbly difficult and I would argue that her double double might just be the best in the world right now. She absolutely planted it today. Her second pass, full in connected to punch tuck-back, could do with being sped up a bit but it is great to look at. Dance good. 14.900. Hopefully that will sail her into the floor final which, based on the field, might just be the best Olympic floor final of all time.

Mitchell, AUS – beam and floor

Lauren is worrying me. Apparently she is suffering with a stomach complaint and I was terrified this might affect her. I want her in beam and floor finals, desperately. Not seeing her in any finals in Beijing was a real disappointment and I do NOT want a repeat of that.

Whether or not it did affect her is debatable. Some of her elements looked better than ever, but in other areas things that are usually right on the money were well off.

Floor came first. First tumble was fine but her legs were way more cowboyed than usual on the double Arabian. Still, she landed fine and jumped out well. Her full in double pike landed messily and there was no connected leap. The rest looked good though, and I have really grown to like the composition of this routine. Although I used to bemoan her leaping out, on balance (now that every gymnast and her dog is doing it) she is quite good at it. 14.833, should be final worthy where she can step it up a bit.

Beam started well. She has managed to stop that horrible slouch before the layout series, and it looked as high and flighted as it ever has. However, she had a massive break on her FWO and missed the connection into the tuck. Further, her double pike was a complete knee eater to get her a 14.300. Only time will tell if this is good enough or not, I am keeping everything crossed.

Low Point – Mitchell wobbling and being a millimetre from falling. My heart stopped.

High Point – Ferrari on floor. She smashed it out of the park and can hopefully repeat that in the final

Can't wait for 3 and 4. COME ON BETH. 

Pictures: http://www.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/49/74/49746eee67d175376df130a08e0c8915.jpg, http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7252/7566779410_fcf6f4fa40_z.jpg, http://c2971522.r22.cf0.rackcdn.com/MbN34rVIrYT18BWmWFKh.jpg, http://www.timeslive.co.za/Feeds/Reuters_Images/2012/07/26/26-07-2012-14-07-00-798mdf55005.jpg/ALTERNATES/crop_630x400/26-07-2012-14-07-00-798mdf55005.jpg

US Nationals Day 1: a super-quick summary

VISA Championships: Day 1 in 100 words

Nastia misses bars. Lack of endurance and nerves bring her to grief: doesn’t compete dismount. 13.150. Comes back to smash beam, 15.100.

Jordyn ties Gabby for first. Messy beam and scary-ish vault but her best bars! Gabby: great bars and good floor, not too bad beam and vault.

Raisman: another day at the office. Solid, but overscored on floor (definitely the opinion splitter of the meet).

Maroney: Two wonderful vaults. Good floor, great 3.5 twist but struggles on 1.5 to double tuck.

Bross: OK bars but sat down Patterson.

Ross: Good

Finnegan: Great, Top Beamer. Stumble on floor, but pretty.

Quick Thoughts

Specialists

I am not Marta, but if I was I would be expecting my specialist hopefuls to be in the top ranks. Rebecca Bross is being beaten by two AA workers, Anna Li isn’t cracking top 3 and Nastia Liukin finished last. Bridget Sloan looked thrilled after her bars routine, which was really rather good.

Can’t fault Nastia Liukin here, she was awesome. Looked like she had glue on her feet and moved quicker than she has in a long time. Will it get her to London? No, but it improves her case after bars. Alicia Sacramone took second place against the odds, looking very competent with a lovely new sheep jump I would never have assumed would suit her body type. Rebecca Bross is starting to make her dismount look like it is supposed to be sat down. With so little time, what chance now?

Mckayla Maroney simply smashed it. Olympic champion performance, as always. Alicia Sacramone didn’t have the best rudi of her life, but it was better than expected. Vaulted an FTY for her second, which her coach didn’t seem happy with.

All Arounders

Gabrielle Douglas is proving that she can be up there with “lock” Wieber yet again. Great bars; beam and vault could have been better but no major mistakes. Floor generally good but as everyone seems to be saying, her music is brittle and somewhat annoying and the dance echoes this. I am all for modern floor music; ever since her tweet after the 2011 team final (“who run the world, US girls!” or something similar) I have always though how great she would be to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVo5tIuPiU8

Jordyn Wieber didn’t have the best day of her life, but it certainly was bad either. Rather it was unexpected. Her worst of the day was probably beam, which is unusual, and she hit bars about as well as she is capable. Floor looked great, no DLO yet though.

Sarah Finnegan: Great floor as usual, and top beam. The mount sequence into the triple spin is wonderful. Who knows whether she will make the team, but her beam and floor are certainly Olympic worthy.

Alexandra Raisman had her usual solid day for third. As usual, there were complaints though. Her vault is dramatically lacking in execution, even though it is traditionally where she held her form the best in my opinion. I read an opinion the other day on a gym board which sums it up wonderfully: it is as though she does a DTY with a tucked half twist right before landing. Floor wise, her tumbling is fantastic. However as a whole I would be shocked if Raisman attracts the same level of scoring from an international panel.

Kyla Ross did what was asked, and crucially she posted the top score on bars.

Tomorrow

Nastia needs to hit bars out of the park.

Bross needs to stand up a Patterson, if not I think it’s pretty much game over

Jordyn could do with hitting beam like she usually does, same with vault. Whichever of Douglas and Wieber manages to do this that will decide who the 2012 National Champion is. 

As always, huge gratitude to Nastiafan101 (or whatever the current variation is) for fantastic videos so quickly.

Picture: http://fulltwist.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012-visa-champs.jpg

What if....He Kexin repeats?

As usual, the things that are on my mind are usually put there by issues debated on message boards. On the intlgym forum, there is currently a thread debating the likelihood of He Kexin going to London. I had also intended to start a new feature called “what if”, a sort of subjunctive gymnastics discussion based in either the past or the future. This seemed like a good place to start.

What if: He Kexin repeats as Olympic bars champion?

Now, I imagine most readers will be like me. Had I read this title elsewhere my initial reaction would have been a dismissive pulling of the face: “surely it would be impossible for He Kexin to manage that, she hasn’t hit a routine in major competition for two years?”.

True, it doesn’t seem like the most likely eventuality, but when considered rationally, it isn’t that ridiculous. Let’s have a look at some handy subheadings...

Inconsistency

The last major competition bars set that He Kexin hit to a good standard was in the Rotterdam team final back in 2010. It looked like this:

OK so 2 years is a long time not to hit a routine. However, to make a comparison, it is that amount of time since Rebecca Bross properly nailed something and she is still a legitimate consideration for her countries Olympic team despite far greater depth. Also, when your last hit international routine received a score that remains to be the highest recorded in the quad, it hardly does bad things to your reputation especially if you compete for a country which does not punish inconsistency to nearly the same degree as other powerhouse gymnastics nations.

Difficulty

In many ways He Kexin remains to be amongst China’s greatest hopes of Olympic gold in London. This again might sound strange when first read, but let’s consider other competitors. Sui Lu, the fantastic current beam world champion and floor silver medallist, has a very reasonable chance as well. However, as history has told us, floor and beam tend to be a lot closer and less easy to predict in most circumstances than the bars, which tends to be very difficulty led and far more specialist as an apparatus (in a similar way to the vault). Her reputation difficulty wise might be a real asset to her: she is the only gymnast to break 16 on the uneven bars at world competition this quad and she has done it on at least 2 occasions. 

As discussed heavily here and elsewhere, the 5 per team rule does not bode well for event specialists from powerhouse countries. However, with little legitimate chance of team gold, the Chinese programme may well be looking to the AA (solely with Yao Jinnan) and EFs more than other countries. 

AT the recent Cottbus cup, she qualified with a reasonably clean routine and scored a 15.225, which is likely to be close to a medal worthy score at the Olympics, and she was using a routine with a D score of 7.1. Here is her qualification routine...

Not her best, but her dead hang looks far less pronounced

Conclusion

Likelihood: Slim. The issues He Kexin faces are threefold:

1. Convincing the Chinese coaches that her bar routine is consistent enough to make her worthy of one of five team spots on the basis of a single routine

2. Hitting in qualifications

3. Hitting in finals

All three would be very difficult, but not impossible. As we have seen over the years, Chinese coaches seem to be more forgiving of errors (but it is important to note that she was pulled from the team finals last year after a disappointing prelims).

Sadly, the main issues with her routine can be boiled down to a single factor: catching her laid out jaeger. Her dead hangs are not nearly as bad as they have been in the past, and her pirouettes and opening Li Ya combination are still impressive. It is clear that the skill must stay to keep the D score in the rafters, otherwise it probably would have been bumped by now in favour or something far more consistent.

What if she managed it? She would be the first Chinese WAG gymnast ever to have two Olympic gold medals, and would add this second Olympic title to the 09 world title to establish herself as one of the modern greats on the apparatus. She would be the first since Khorkina to repeat Olympic gold on the same apparatus.

Personal Opinion: I would be shocked if He Kexin made the Olympic team based on her recent performances, and perhaps would feel like there were shades of unfairness for other possible team members given that she already has had her Olympic experience, not to mention Olympic gold. However, if she made it against all odds and hit cleanly I would be happy to see her medal. 

Although it seems crazy, and is highly unlikely, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. This would be a true Olympic shocker. In many ways, it simply comes down to the successful catching of a Jaeger at the right time.

Pictures: http://static.stuff.co.nz/1233108507/402/591402.jpg, https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0jIbJciOzQHKM3vYRtUKhydfkSricluIFGXC6UL4pDzuya84tY_HPstw3tDP3E1yaXkGZcxMc90inD0GFjsgwHF2sFB7KWMnltbHN_Y5qcA5GTjDBMTuCggi6cCKsujy77NR-lVG6IT9u/s400/925524f62a3f65eaa02343f86218de15-getty-oly-2008-gymnastics-team-final-chn.jpg

LIKE A BROSS: why I am rooting for Rebecca

The curse of the birthday is one of those saddening and unavoidably frustrating aspects of a gymnast’s life, and often accompanies our saddest gymnastics tales. Through no fault of their own, gymnasts are forced to peak at a far later time than they would if age were no concern. Of course, we hear success stories now and again. Nastia Liukin is one of those bright child stars who would surely have made the 2004 Olympic team had she been a whisker older to make the age cutoff, and she went on to take the AA title in Beijing. Despite these heartwarming tales there are those for whom an extra four years is a stretch too far - Vanessa Atler being a prominent example.

It is with an impending sense of foreboding that the time has come to acknowledge a nagging doubt that I have been suppressing to the back of my head for the last few weeks. With 16 weeks to go until the US Olympic trials, does Rebecca Bross have enough time?

Ask anyone in 2009/2010, Bross was a lock for team USA in London. She had some fantastic aspects to her gymnastics that were fantastic not only in an AA situation, but invaluable for a team too. Unlike many USA gymnasts, Rebecca was great on floor, beam AND bars. With fantastic execution and power on the latter and the potential for more upgrades, things were set to get bigger and better with time.

It wasn’t as if she started badly either. She was the talk of 2009 in the USA and would have strolled her way to a national title. Mistakes, however, meant Rebecca handed the title to Olympic veteran Bridget Sloan (not to put down Bridget, I really like her work, but Rebecca is a better gymnast or was in 2009 at least).

Already you can tell I like Rebecca. I just do. I like the look of all her work and how she ATTACKS all four pieces - there is a real fighting spirit and aggression in her work that you see in few other places. For me, this makes up for her lack of “artistry”, which I know gets some people down (and I see why). But Rebecca is that type of gymnast who even if the videos were pixellated you would still know it was her, and I think that kind of individuality is fantastic.

But this goes beyond simply liking someone: everyone has their favourites. Rebecca is one of those gymnasts who has had such an INCONVENIENT career (not Memmel inconvienient, but not far off), that I think it’s hard not to root for her.

A whistle stop tour of a less than ideal senior career

2009

First senior year. General expectation to be the national champion in a podium completed by Bridget Sloan and Ivana Hong. Mistakes put her in third behind these two, more experienced competitors.

Worlds: Qualifies first into the All Around(despite a botched beam dismount) ahead of Porgras, Mitchell, Linlin and Sloan. One of only two all arounders to qualify with an apparatus score in the 15s (on bars). Hits first three apparatus in AA finals (receiving a beam score that would have been golden in the EF). Entered floor needing only a 12.925 for the title, but fell at the very last hurdle on her 2.5 twist to layout half. Just missed the required mark and for a second time handed a title to Bridget Sloan.

2010

Started the season strongly by winning her first American Cup. Then went on to convincingly win the national title. Headed into worlds as a competitor for the title, with the competition painted as a Russian/American rivalry between herself and newly eligible Russian superstar Aliya Mustafina. Qualified in second behind Mustafina, despite a disappointing floor outing. In the finals, Rebecca started well but fell from the beam, losing her chance to become the world champion yet again. However in the last rotation she harnessed her trademark fighting spirit and came back with the best floor routine of her life to get a 15.233 - a score which remains the highest on the apparatus in this quad so far.

2011

Sat out most of the season due to injury, and didn’t compete competitive gymnastics until the Visa Championships in June. Looking tired and unable to compete the skills she had been hitting for years, fans were immediately concerned for her safety and message boards were full of talk about her health. After falling from the beam on both days, sitting down her beam dismount both days and falling from the bars on a tkatchev, Rebecca fell afoul of the dreaded knee injury, a super-low DTY dislocating her kneecap and rendering her incapable of competing again in the 2011 season.

2012

We first got a hint of how Becca was doing at the WOGA classic early in the year. Only competing bars and beam, Becca was looking a little better. Most of the skills were looking good, but she was unable to put her Patterson dismount to her feet. On bars, the old skills were done well enough and an upgrade shaposhnikova half gave a hint of significant improvement, but Becca fell on this new element. In Jesolo, Becca landed the Patterson for the first time in a competition since the 2010 World’s Event Finals. She still failed to stay on the bars however.

Low dismount, but stuck like she never has

So where are we now? Well with no sight of any vault or floor for a year, no hit bars and a dismount that has been landed once in competition, no one can pretend that things are looking good for Rebecca. But there is still hope. Despite the falls (which were probably just flukes - I am sure she is more than capable of that bar transfer) Becca’s bars look very crisp. With a bit more work, beam could be back to a good standard, and if she has floor then she is still in the enviable position of offering three team final worthy events that include a good bars set (people seem to forget how simply superb Becca is on floor - she KILLS it). Few others (really only Kyla Ross at this point) can say that.

Although most of this is a self indulgent whine about the misfortune of one of my favourite athletes, I think this is pretty undeniable: Becca is a great gymnast, one of the stars of this quad, and due to difficult circumstances is now under a huge amount of pressure from all angles. With the WOGA threepeat legacy placed upon her shoulders years ago, rumours of rising tension between her and her coach, and the prospect of fighting for a spot on the Olympic team with little recent international experience, VISAs and trials will be touch and go times for Bross.

I keep my fingers crossed that she can still fight her way to something fantastic on beam, floor and bars. She really deserves it both as a great gymnast and as a person who has had a really hard few years.

Rebecca Bross for London! (but as an edit, I have to add that whether she does or not, it won't make her any less of a star in my eyes)

EDIT 15/05/2012 Bross is no longer going for the All Around


An article posted today on the Dallas news website confirms that Rebecca Bross will from now on "focus on the balance beam and uneven bars" - http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/more-sports/olympics/20120515-gruesome-injury-costs-dallas-gymnast-rebecca-bross-a-shot-at-all-around-glory-but-not-olympic-gold.ece

The full meaning of this is unclear as yet - "focusing" on bars and beam does not necessarily mean that floor is completely out of the question, however, it seems obvious that vault will not be a priority. The time required to get a good DTY that would never be used in a team situation seems pointless given the ticking clock and the remaining work to be done where Bross can actually be used.

Although it is very sad to think what could have been, I think this is generally positive. The pressure of the threepeat is now officially lifted and Becca can plough all her energy into perfecting her routines where they are needed: primarily the uneven bars. Of course, this does mean that the competition between Bross and Liukin is 100% head to head: with a five person team only one of these WOGA girls will make it to London.

We eagerly await Classics to get a better indication of who....

Pictures: http://nimg.sulekha.com/sports/original700/rebecca-bross-2009-10-16-17-10-3.jpg, screencap from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UqXmwiK_ps, http://s4.assets.usoc.org/assets/images/article/photo/39181/full/105992158.jpg, http://cdn.rickey.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Rebecca-Bross-Injury.jpg, http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/galleries/197/197989/crop_450x500_GYI0058655058.jpg

Deep enough to drown in?

I should probably start with this: if anyone is sick and tired of reading about the highs and lows of the USA Olympic team selection, I do understand your pain and you should probably look away now. Perhaps look this way and forget all about the bitching and whining and indulge in some classic beauty and artistic interpretation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XInPlh-3a58.

(Sorry, that was mean).

To get back on track, I know this topic is being absolutely done to death at the moment, but it keeps playing on my mind. The more I ponder on it, the more I come to think that the events we will see pan out will have repercussions the world over, and that the current US situation should be watched closely and inform those at the top about key decisions to be made for the future of our favourite sport.

For those that might have been hiding under a rock recently, the situation is this...

The new Olympic format permits 5 member teams in a 5-3-3 format. There are 5 members to each team. Three gymnasts work on each apparatus in the team final, with all scores being counted towards the team totals that decide the first gold medals we will see in London.

As anyone can see, there is not a lot of room on that team. This size itself is not particularly shocking in a team final situation (in Beijing the USA basically had a 5 member team because Sam Peszeck didn’t work beyond qualifications). The problem is that with the focus on team gold, event specialists from powerhouse countries risk getting shut out in the cold. Right now, there are several girls starting to sink in the depth of the USA gymnastics programme.

My problem with this tiny team format is this: it creates a huge bias towards AA and multiple specialist gymnastics in comparison to those that shine on a single event. Sure, it makes perfect sense on paper, but there is no concrete reason to validate this bias. Gold medals are gold medals, be it with the team, in the AA, or in an event final. Yet this system causes specialists from deep programmes to be greatly undervalued in comparison to the all around contributors.

This train of thought has been recently validated by USA team coordinator Marta Karyoli. In a recent interview, the ever opinion-splitting Marta stated that her Olympic team will consist of “3 all arounders and 2 bars specialists”. Cue wild speculation. The USA, as is often the case, is super strong on the power events and somewhat lacking in the bars department. Now we are not talking Romania bad: Jordyn Wieber made the world bars final in 2011 and puts up some not-too-terrible numbers, Rebecca Bross is a great bars worker and then there is the prospect of the much anticipated return of current Olympic AA champ Nastia Liukin. But compared to other events, most notably the vault (where America may now feasibly have more 6.5 vaults than the rest of the world put together) the high number flashers are thin on the ground.

Marta: we would all love to know what she is thinking

So what does this mean? It means, most likely, that a solid but often sloppy AAer like Aly Raisman or a back-in-the-gym for five minutes Nastia Liukin has a greater shot at London than the highest scoring gymnast this quad Mckayla Maroney (don’t mistake this for me getting at Nastia or Aly, it is the principle that is important not the names themselves).

Now let’s compare the situation of an American specialist to a non powerhouse specialist. Beth Tweddle has been walking on to GBR world teams for approaching 10 years now, and not without cause: she is a fantastic gymnast. However, she gets an advantage because her country is not awash with home ground competitors. For those who don’t live in the UK (and google analytics tell me the vast majority of the readers of this blog are not...) gymnastics is not a big deal in the UK. It is barely on the radar of most people. To Brits, the sight of the Olympic Trials packing out giant stadiums is a strange one, because here the average person won’t know a thing about the sport. The day Beth won the floor gold in 2009, she had a small 1 paragraph mention in the back of the newspaper I read over breakfast the next morning. To most UK crowds, gymnastics is something they pop in on every four years, and pop straight back out of.

The same can be said for Oksana Chusovitina: if she can keep her vaults to the same standard they have been since Beijing, her spot at the games is as good as set in stone.

...and this leads us nicely to the impact of the US selection process on the rest of the world. For some reason it hadn’t clicked with me that every vault world champion this quad has been American. Kayla Williams, Alicia Sacramone, Mckayla Maroney. They have dominated recently and continue to do so. However, with every American gymnast and her dog doing an Amanar now, the second vault is meaningless and so it is feasible that no American makes the vault final this time around. Unless Cheng Fei makes a spectacular return, would this be like handing a gold medal to Chusovitina?

To conclude, I am struggling to find ways to defend this 5 team system. Why? Because I don’t think it is benefitting the athletes nearly as much as it needs to. Through no fault of their own, fantastic event specialists have to divert attention away from their signatures and plough it into their weaker pieces to have a chance of factoring in. 

Pictures: http://www4.images.coolspotters.com/photos/765471/team-usa-adidas-pink-competition-leotard-profile.jpg, http://eventfulstays.com/image/north-greenwich-arena-hosts-basketball-finals.441x330.jpg, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/22/martha.jpg, http://images.wikia.com/olympic/images/9/92/Oksana_Chusovitina.jpg

Beth Tweddle: the upgrade machine

What an insane 48 hours this has been for the sport. In the past few days excitement levels have really begun to escalate and we are getting a taste of what a ridiculously exciting Olympic year this is going to be.

In the space of a weekend we have seen that USA now have a minimum of 4 Amanar vaults. We have seen Gabrielle Douglas beat Jordyn Wieber at the American Cup, cementing her status as a serious contender for the Olympic team (and in doing so edging team-mates Sacramone and Maroney's chances ever more into the shadows - and for that matter Raisman's chances of being second in command in an All Around situation). We have seen Iordache of Romania hit a beam say way into the fifteens showing the world that the Romanians are NOT out of the picture on an individual level despite the loss of Porgras and reported re-injury of Izbasa.

This weekend has also seen the English Championships take place. This competition doesn't usually give us information impacting the world stage in the same way as the above, but it does mean we get to have a good look at British favourite Beth Tweddle.

I am going to allow myself a bit of fawning here. Beth is just great. Not only has she carried on into her THIRD Olympic title in the face of adversity. Not only did she face heartbreak at the last Olympics. Not only if she incredibly likely to go again, but she is in a better position on her signature apparatus than ever before. AND she CONTINUES to upgrade.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ogTGKIp8iU

We have seen her throw the Fabrichnova before. She has brought it out of the bag in podium training a few times, giving the impression that she might throw it in a pressured situation. I think she probably would have gone for it in 2010 if He Kexin hadn't come off the bars, so easing the pressure for Beth. But here is a video from the English champs of Beth dismounting with a double twisting double tuck. We will have to wait for higher quality videos, but it doesn't look half bad, does it?

Now noone is saying this routine isn't without its problems. She could get slammed on a few of those handstands, for instance. But it is by far the most original and difficult bars routine in the world right now, and she looks set to enter the Olympics with the hardest bars set for the second Olympics in a row: that feat alone deserves a medal. If she hits the Ono-Markelov-Gienger combination as well as the Toe on 1/1-Tweddle-Ezhova-Van Leeuwen (she doesn't compete the toe on 1/1 here, but the rest of that combination is looking great) then she could be looking at a start value approaching 7.3.

This is fantastic news. There is the possibility of course that Beth does not necessarily plan to throw this dismount regularly and that she was just giving it a go. She did say during the commentary at the test event that she had no planned upgrades to her routines in the run up to London. But then again she also said she would quit after Beijing so who knows!

Beth is such a commendable athlete and she never stops stunning her audience with her ability to  improve her routines at this stage in her career. I just PRAY that she hit in QFs (finals too, of course, but one step at a time). 

Just imagine the drama: the unlikely champion turned specialist turned home crowd favourite. I can't even bear to think what NBC will do with it.