Katelyn Ohashi: which prophecy?

The noughties were all about WOGA.

What else could have so neatly epitomised the rise of the USA? A neat-post-cold war union of the artistry and graceful lines of the east meeting with the power and tenacity of the west, colliding in a crescendo in the work of rising star Carly Patterson, advancing like an army to dethrone Queen Khorkina in her last chance at glory.

(I read quite a lot of Game of Thrones in my absence. Sorry).

But seriously, WOGA had the noughties, and were responsible for its two biggest stars: Patterson and Liukin. Two stars. Two gold medals. Two lifes changed forever. One gym.

...but then it all changed.

In the months following the Olympics, the metaphorical groggy awakening and clearing away of the bottles from the night before, the image of WOGA left is not one of success, not one of smiles and the glitter of realised dreams. It is the image of a young girl,with a taped knee and sad eyes, being waved off the podium by her coach to a room full of pitying glances and shocked silence.

But it is a new quad. A new senior star. A new hope.

Katelyn Ohashi is no stranger to most of us and hasn't been for some time. Here is why:

This surely needs no explanation, except to draw attention to what a full in double pike from the beam SHOULD look like. Any junior that can put vintage Ponor to shame is worth her weight in gold.

Without meaning to exaggerate wildly, we hadn't really seen beam work like this before. Sure we had the tricksters, and sure we had the elegant ones too. But never, really, had we seen such ridiculous knockout insane difficulty in the same routine as a perfect split leap. Surely Katelyn Ohashi was going to take over the world?

As seems to be WOGA tradition, though, she narrowly missed age qualification for the Olympics. Whether or not WOGA experienced a series of coincidences of this manner (Liukin and Bross would both have contended for 2004 and 2008 respectively) or whether they have a tendency to peak their athletes too early is a matter of opinion. What seemed unanimous, though, was that Ohashi was slowing down. Had it been a case of too much too soon? 

Her DTY was starting to look more and more like a terrifying parody of Bross's infamous demise

But enough ruminating over the past, let's move into the present.....

2013 American Cup

The first major post Olympic competition, the American Cup, was won by Ohashi, although not as convincingly as one might have expected given her early notoriety. Simone Biles, tipped to be the next All American powerhouse, was 1.533 behind Ohashi in second place, having beaten Ohashi on vault and bars, and made mistakes on both beam and floor. 

Which prophecy?

A question we all undoubtedly look forward to seeing answered: will Ohashi prove to be a WOGA success or a WOGA tragedy? There is certainly precedent for both.

Things in her favour

Beam is still super hot. Even with missed connections Ohashi managed a cool 15.333 - a massive score for this early in the quad and clear of the second highest beam score of the meet by 1.333 points. I am personally VERY excited by what seems to me to be one of the most difficult and original combinations in years: Onodi to front walkover to front walk over to sheep - pretty awesome if she can put that together at the right time.

Vault looks better. Sure, she is still on a DTY and is likely to come up against a whole host of Amanars, but the code changes favour her too: the Amanar is a 6.3 now, not a 6.5, and Ohashi can utilise her huge beam capability to make up that two tenths elsewhere. Moreover, her DTY looks nice, against all expectation she managed to stop it looking at all scary.

Floor Choreography is lovely, and she looks confident performing it

Things in her way

Bars pirouettes are a mess. She is clearly struggling there and unless they are cleaned up she will end up losing more than she gains. A more Bross themed routine might be better but she may lack the power to make that happen.

Floor is likely to be the big hitter this quad, like bars was in 05-08 and like vault was 09-12. Katelyn isn't bad on floor, but her tumbling isn't great either. 

Degeneration of skills. Katelyn has a few top skills that have always been a bit iffy. Perhaps most famously her DTY which, touch wood, seems to be looking good. Also, though, her signature full twisting layout on beam, although impressive in its consistency, gives a hint that it might not stand the test of time. It has always been whipped and low, and is now looking increasingly piked. 

This picture shows the extent of the piking going on, and a big leg separation too. Her left leg is pretty much 90 degrees to her body. 

Ultimately, though, the only way to know is to wait and find out. I only hope that Ohashi's career is more of a sustained success than a quick rise followed by a crash and burn. 

Decoded?

The end of the 10 system was treated by many as the end of a golden age. And in many ways, it was. Gymnastics since 2006 has felt somewhat different, and in many ways less exciting. Gone are the days when a step on a dismount loses a medal, when an OOB knocks leaders off the podium and a wobble on beam spells a goodbye to a world title. Excitement on the level of the 1996 AA is lost: there is no longer such a thing as the underdog. In a hypothetical competition where all the competitors hit, the winner is pre decided on the basis of the much slandered open ended D-score.

But is this a bad thing? The debate about open ended scoring is too deep and complex to be considered in any single article. But broad brush statements can still be made. Although the above is true, there are definite benefits to the new system. We see far more exciting skills and a real push towards difficulty and technical ingenuity. The classic gripe of the gymnastics fan is to whether or not this comes at the expense of perfection.

Steliana Nistor being hit by a bus. Oh, wait...

I think pictures such as this represent perfectly the issues with the new code. Here we see Steliana Nistor blocking for a DTY, and resembling a mosquito squashed against a car windscreen. One would argue that the value of difficulty in the new system encourages skill chucking and discourages a fine tuning of skills. This certainly seems true in part for the past few years, but are we seeing a change in the tides?

In recent discussions of possible changes to the code, an idea that caught my attention was that of “D+2E”. Basically, that instead of a final score produced from a combination of difficulty and execution out of 10, the value of the execution score should be doubled before it is added to the difficulty so creating a system that favours the execution side of gymnastics in a throwback to years gone by. This sounds great in practice, but one has to ask the all important question: would it make any difference?

Being a big geek I decided to test this based on the scores from this weekend’s world championships women’s event finals. The following tables represent what would happen were the D+2E rule enforced with these scores.

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

I was shocked to find no change whatsoever to the medals. Why? Because in each discipline, the competitor with the highest execution score took the gold medal. This to me suggests that the code might be maturing into something that actually works, favouring both difficulty and execution. It seems that gymnasts and coaches have begun to see renewed value in perfection and are using it to win medals. Yes, the gold medallists also usually had the highest D scores, but the difference now is that they can complete all their skills to an impressive standard. This is, of course, a matter of opinion, but I believe much of the work we saw at this year’s world’s to be of the highest standard of its kind in years (particularly the gold medal winners on every apparatus).

Compare this to the event finals from the 2008 Olympics: with D+2E there would have been a change to every podium except bars.

Vault

YES ALICIA!

Bars

Beam

Floor

I think the times are changing. Execution is coming back.


Results all taken from www.gymnasticsresults.com. Apologies for any potential error in my calculations. Important note: I did not include penalties in the calculations which would certainly have an effect on the outcome but would surely be weighted differently in the d+2e system.

The world's greatest - looking from QF towards finals

So, qualifications are over and now the real excitement begins. There has already been plenty of drama and eventfulness in Tokyo, and who knows what more is to come. Biggest surprises and upsets for me so far were the bars qualification (quite a few spills and as a result the two latest world champions will not be competing for gold) and also the hugely sad exit of multiple time world champion Alicia Sacramone, after an Achilles injury sustained whilst performing a double Arabian in training. Alicia is a real star and will be sorely missed not only by the American team but by her huge global fan base. I wish her the speediest of recoveries.

But we must look on to the excitement that is to come in the next few days. With that in mind I am going to do a quick roundup of the qualifying lists and carry out some giddy speculation of the imminent individual finals.

All Around

As expected, the all around qualifications were topped by Wieber and Komova, both of whom were within a whisker of each other (just over a tenth) and clear of the third highest qualifier by a full point. I was a little surprised at the order of their qualifications: I thought that with Komova having been delicate recently she may have felt the pressure a bit giving Wieber the edge, but as we can see she pipped her to the post coming in at the top of the AA standings. However this is clearly going to be a tense, exciting and very closely fought battle and the smallest of errors could decide who takes home the big prize. I think this is the first time in a long time that the two front runners were so closely matched and that us fans were treated to such a tense race.

Yao Jinnan came in third, with some cracking performances including this beauty:

Shades of Mo Huilan right there.She really is a lovely gymnast and I am pleased to see her qualify so well.

Raisman took fourth place, filling the slot for the second American all arounder, as expected. Its a real shame she can’t do anything about that bars set because with a slightly beefed up score she would have such better chances of making a splash in the AA finals. I am rooting for her though, because I feel like this is probably her last chance in the second AA spot (I don’t rate her chances of having this position in London) so it would be great for her to sneak in a bronze (but I realize this would take a brilliant performance and some help from the others).

Worth mentioning (despite her not qualifying) is Gabby Douglas, who finished in 5^th place just below Raisman. This is a really impressive achievement for such an inexperienced gymnast, and one who had been labelled as something of a headcase due to her performance at this year’s VISA champs among others. Qualifying in 5^th in her first world championships should provide her with a much deserved energy and confidence boost to take on into the next stages. Well done Gabby!

So, given the 2 per country rule the top 8 qualifiers to advance to the AA finals are:

Some additional thoughts include a well done to Hannah Whelan of GBR for finishing in 13^th and advancing to the AA. I am hoping that by the time of London she might be able to top Becky Downie’s fantastic 10^th place finish from Beijing, although competition is likely to be much stiffer. Also it’s a shame that Ana Porgras and Lauren Mitchell are still struggling to get up there with the AA leaders.

Prediction to win: Komova

WANT to win: Undecided (I love them both!)

Wildcard medal hope: Raisman

Vault final

The apparatus final with a top 8 that I am least familiar with, although I am thrilled to see Maroney out there on top. It really is refreshing to see a vaulter who makes the amanar look PRETTY, someone who is clearly suited to the vault and who doesn’t make you hold your breath every time they start sprinting for the table. A real pleasure and definitely my top favourite for the win, as well as the frontrunner. It is absolutely fantastic to see a top qualifier who also has the highest E scores. A new trend? Let’s hope so.

Old favourite Chusovitina came in second. As usual it would be a great win for the sport if she could get a medal out of this final.

Tatiana Nabieva, the Russian who was part of a small scandal in last years vault finals due to vault downgrading, creeped into 7^th place with much less difficult vaults than this time last year. Perhaps she will pull out the difficulty in the finals, but I find them so frightening to watch I would really rather she didn’t.

Interesting notes: if we look at qualification based on 1 vault only we see that Maroney is still on top – she really is a winner in every sense. Chusovitina comes in third with Wieber in second (the second best, but still great, amanar). Interestingly, veteran and Romanian comeback queen Catalina Ponor had the sixth best vault of the day, on an apparatus she is not renowned for.

Prediction to win: Maroney

WANT to win: Maroney (but I am crushed that Alicia isn’t here)

Bars final

 I must initially express my utter dismay at Beth’s absolute mare in the qualifier. Seems like she just lost it a bit mentally, which is such a shame because she would have been a dead cert to qualify and probably medal, given the field.

It was also a sad sight to see He Kexin’s performance. Everything seemed laboured and clunky. I was never a big fan but back in 2008, she had this brilliant flourish and energetic presentation to everything. The amplitude on her giants made it look like she was defying gravity and her pirouettes were as light as a feather. But now everything looks so muscled and difficult. The jaeger was less laid out and the dead hang worse than ever. I feel sorry for her not being able to perform the way she used to.

But now to the list of qualifiers. Komova is way out in front. She is Usain bolt heading down the 100m stretch. With an almost 7 tenth advantage, the gold is hers is she just goes clean (and clean is exactly what she is, with the highest E score by a 5 tenth margin).

SMASHED

Really nice to see Dufournet up there with the top qualifiers. She has been trying for years to incorporate difficultly cleanly, and I think she is a great gymnast. I would love to see her medal.

 Quishang probably has a chance if she cleans up,  given that she has the same D score as the leaders. It’s nice to see two Japanese gymnasts that will get to perform in the final on home soil.

Very impressive of Gabby Douglas to make the final, due to her often feeling the pressure as I mentioned earlier. Would be great to see her come through and she is definitely a sentimental favourite of mine.

Predication to win: Komova

Want to win: Komova

Wildcard medal hope: Douglas.

Beam final

Who topped the qualifier....? You guessed it...Komova! This is getting boring. I jest. Its fantastic to see such a high calibre gymnast that can be both an all around threat AND a threat in multiple individual finals. I hate those drab years after an Olympics with half baked world champions...sorry Bridget, I think you are a nice athlete, but this is the kind of sport I enjoy. Real quality over a large range of disciplines.

Sui Lu is in second. I LOVE LOVE LOVE her beam work. That front with a half just floats through the air beautifully, and that initial front pike to korbut flip is so airy and nice to watch. She has the D score advantage, and so if she can clean up a bit she might sneak into first place in the final.

Wieber also features and is a good contender for bronze, in my opinion. Also, down in fifth, is the great Catalina Ponor. I am rooting for her to medal at next year’s Olympics and break some records. Her latest beam and floor work has blown me away. I would love for her to go through solid in the finals and come away with a medal. A repeat of this please:

Obv that isn't going to happen, but a nice solid clean set would make me very happy.

Interesting things to note here are that 4 Chinese athletes finished in the top 10, which I think is very very impressive. Also I am slightly distressed that Maria Livchikova is nowhere to be seen in this lineup.

Predication to win: Komova

Want to win: Sui Lu

Wildcard medal hope: Ponor

Floor final

Looks like Raisman has got this one, and I am actually happy about that. She is by no means my favourite gymnast, but I think her floor has got better and better over the years and I love how she has brought the double Arabian punch front tumbling pass back from the dead. When I watch it I am instantly reminded of old favourites Viktoria Karpenko and Elena Produnova. So, I love her tumbling. Her presentation isn’t great but I think there has been some improvement, and hopefully that will continue.

In the name of patriotism and old favourites, I would love for Beth Tweddle to get a medal. I am upset that she didn’t get into the bars finals for two reasons. The first being what is already clear, I love her as a British gymnast, but secondly, I think her bar work is actually world class anyway and her release combinations amaze me. Floor I feel a bit differently about. Her tumbling is great, and that double Arabian full out she was training is INSANE. But, her leaps are not the best and her dance is just awful. So basically I find it hard to get completely behind the cause on floor exercise. I want her to medal, but not win.

Prediction to win: Raisman

Want to win: Raisman

Wildcard medal hope: Tweddle

So there we have it. Most of all though, and any petty favouritism aside I would like a clean competition where everyone performs to their best. I can't wait!

All scoresheets features in this post were taken from www.gymnasticsresults.com

Mariya Livchikova - a Ghent highlight

Of all the coverage from today’s Ghent Challenger Cup finals, the standout for me was most definately Ukrainian  Mariya Livchikova

Picture: http://www.intlgymnast.com/image/livchikova_maria.jpg

This is, obviously, not the first we have seen from Mariya in competition: I personally saw her for the first time at this year’s Europeans. This does seem to be, however, the first time she has performed consistently and shown the world her true potential.

What she has shown is that she is a fantastic gymnast. Her lines are clean, long and graceful, yet she is also powerful. Her double front is one of the very best I have ever seen (and may even challenge the spot for my all time favourite, by Ivana Hong in 2008). Although her music is nice and what choreography is present is performed well, you can’t help but feel she has much more to offer in terms of artistry: with better music and dance it could be one of the floor routines of the whole quad.

I find Mariya’s gymnastics most exciting, though, on the balance beam: the combinations she competes are so difficult and so original that it makes me forgive her entirely any wobbles. I first saw her front handspring to immediate front tuck at the Europeans earlier this year and fell in love with it: the front handspring actually works with and feeds into the front tuck unlike some other similar combinations (namely Lauren Mitchells free walkover into front tuck – a laborious connection which does not flow and produces an insanely low tuck). Also, Mariya shows an arial walkover into layout stepout connection reminiscent of the great Olesya Dudnik. My personal favorite, however, is her split handstand directly into a tucked arabian somersault: as far as I can tell the code of points does not reward this combination with bonus which only makes me love it more. It seems to show genuine attention to detail, artistry and presentation.

With some polish, choreography and music changes and perhaps a few upgrades, this gymnast could be a real contender at the world and Olympic level. I would love for this to happen: a real win for artistry, originality, and for a once great gymnastic nation whose fortunes have taken a slide in recent years.

Congratulations to Mariya for her floor gold and balance beam silver.

Beam

Floor